The Relationship between the Arts and Downtown Redevelopment ...

The Relationship between the Arts and Downtown Redevelopment ...

Does TOD Need retail? Retail employment near light rail stations MATTHEW M. MILLER DOCTORAL STUDENT, DEPARTMENT OF CITY & METROPOLITAN PLANNING RESEARCH ANALYST, METROPOLITAN RESEARCH CENTER UNIVERSITY OF UTAH [email protected] TOD Transit Oriented Development 2 (Photo source: http://extrahelpinc.com/2012/02/day-of-a-downtown-dweller-by-dana-kay-goddard/) Pearl District, Portland Contradiction Best Practices for Transit Oriented

Development calls for the location of retail next to transit oriented development. BUT Hedonic analysis of rents and property fails to show that proximity to transit benefits commercial properties. Silent on retail, specifically Del Mar, Los Angeles Hypothesis (Ho:) The retail industry benefits from proximity a transit station, and this benefit will be reflected by increased employment. (Ha:) Proximity to transit stations does not benefit retail

Retail Convenience Destination http://www.urbanadvisors.com/urbanadvisors/urban_notebook/Entries/2007/3/27_Retail_Theory__Part_II_files/reillylaw.jpg Sample (Opened post 2000) 8 System/Line Name Technologies Station Count The Ride Light Rail Light Rail 16

METRORail Light Rail 16 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX METRO Light Rail Light Rail 19 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MAX Light Rail Light Rail and Streetcar 76

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA TRAX Light Rail and Streetcar 24 Salt Lake City, UT San Diego Trolley Light Rail 12 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Data Local Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD)

Employment data by industry at block level Annually Demographic Age Income Data - Confounders Major Malls Institutions (Google Earthd) Airport

University Hospital Methods Aggregated retail employment within mile buffer for 2013 and 2002, and then (Final - Initial) Regression: OLS Controlled for initial year conditions http://resources.esri.com/help/9.3/arcgisengine/java/gp_toolref/geoprocessing/GPKAC_points_select_by_location2.gif What my variables were Variable Type & Scale Outcome Primary Variable Variable Type & Scale

Variable Change in Retail employment Income Indicator, proportion middle, 2002 Operating years of Transit Age Indicator, proportion middle, 2002 Change in Income indicator Metro Region; CBSA Metropolitan Change in Age indicator Scale Controls Retail employment, 2002 Census Region Geographic Census Division Census State Predictor 12

Non-Retail employment, 2002 Predictor Change in retail employment, '02-'13 Retail employment, 2002 Change in non-retail employment, '02-'13 Non-Retail employment, 2002 Presence of a major mall Station Level Income indicator, proportion middle, Controls 2002 Age indicator, proportion middle, 2002 Change in non-retail employment, '02-'13 Mall renovated recently Confounders Presence of a major airport Presence of major college/university Presence of a major hospital

Variable (Intercept) Station Non-Retail Employment in 2002 Change in Metro Retail Employment '02-'13 Presence of Major Mall Presence of a Hospital Operating Years of Transit Station Region: South Region: West Age Indicator: Proportion 30-54 13 Estimate Std. Error 6.78E+02 2.60E+02** -1.51E-02 1.44E-03*** -2.34E-02 8.37E-03** 9.86E+02 2.00E+02*** 2.65E+02 9.57E+01** 1.43E+00 1.18E+01 1.86E+02 4.43E+02 2.37E+02 1.99E+02 2.55E+02 1.14E+02*

. Residual standard error Multiple R-squared Adjusted R-squared F-statistic P-value 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 493.6 on 183 degrees of freedom 0.4738 0.4508 20.6 on 8 and 183 DF < 2.2e-16 Results Signif. codes Variable (Intercept) Station Non-Retail Employment in 2002

Change in Metro Retail Employment '02-'13 Presence of Major Mall Presence of a Hospital Operating Years of Transit Station Region: South Region: West Age Indicator: Proportion 30-54 14 Estimate Std. Error 6.78E+02 2.60E+02** -1.51E-02 1.44E-03*** -2.34E-02 8.37E-03** 9.86E+02 2.00E+02*** 2.65E+02 9.57E+01** 1.43E+00 1.18E+01 1.86E+02 4.43E+02 2.37E+02 1.99E+02 2.55E+02 1.14E+02* . Residual standard error Multiple R-squared

Adjusted R-squared F-statistic P-value 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 493.6 on 183 degrees of freedom 0.4738 0.4508 20.6 on 8 and 183 DF < 2.2e-16 Results Signif. codes Variable (Intercept) Station Non-Retail Employment in 2002 Change in Metro Retail Employment '02-'13 Presence of Major Mall Presence of a Hospital Operating Years of Transit Station

Region: South Region: West Age Indicator: Proportion 30-54 15 Estimate Std. Error 6.78E+02 2.60E+02** -1.51E-02 1.44E-03*** -2.34E-02 8.37E-03** 9.86E+02 2.00E+02*** 2.65E+02 9.57E+01** 1.43E+00 1.18E+01 1.86E+02 4.43E+02 2.37E+02 1.99E+02 2.55E+02 1.14E+02* . Residual standard error Multiple R-squared Adjusted R-squared F-statistic P-value

0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 493.6 on 183 degrees of freedom 0.4738 0.4508 20.6 on 8 and 183 DF < 2.2e-16 Results Signif. codes Variable (Intercept) Station Non-Retail Employment in 2002 Change in Metro Retail Employment '02-'13 Presence of Major Mall Presence of a Hospital Operating Years of Transit Station Region: South Region: West Age Indicator: Proportion 30-54

16 Estimate Std. Error 6.78E+02 2.60E+02** -1.51E-02 1.44E-03*** -2.34E-02 8.37E-03** 9.86E+02 2.00E+02*** 2.65E+02 9.57E+01** 1.43E+00 1.18E+01 1.86E+02 4.43E+02 2.37E+02 1.99E+02 2.55E+02 1.14E+02* . Residual standard error Multiple R-squared Adjusted R-squared F-statistic P-value 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 493.6 on 183 degrees of freedom 0.4738

0.4508 20.6 on 8 and 183 DF < 2.2e-16 Results Signif. codes Implications 17 Zoning for retail near transit stations is a silly idea; In most places, it results in the best land (nearest the station) being used for low intensity uses.

Retail works when its large retail; transit makes it more accessible. Like adding an additional highway; larger market area. Speculations 18 Retail is pedestrian oriented, never transit oriented. Transit allows spatial disaggregation; why recreate a monocentric new town rather than a Transit Oriented Corridor (Cervero 2003), with uses aggregated at stations. Adding a transit station to redevelop an area results in the replacement of marginal retail by new, denser residential.

Methodologically: HLM Spatial Regression Time Series (ARIMAX) Thank you! 19 Contact Information: Matthew M. Miller PhD Student, Department of City and Metropolitan Planning Research Analyst, Metropolitan Research Center College of Architecture + Planning University of Utah [email protected]

Many thanks are due to Dr. Joanna Ganning Apportioning Census Blocks 2000 * Area_Clipped/Area_Origin al 20

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