The Pursuit of Understanding: Modelling Dynamic Behaviour in ...
THE PURSUIT OF UNDERSTANDING: MODELLING DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR IN DISEASE, LIFE & LOVE Brian Dangerfield Professor of Systems Modelling Centre for OR & Applied Statistics System Dynamics
modelling is based upon: * Concept of Information Feedback * Delays * Mapping Tools Stock-Flow Diagrams Influence Diagrams * Equations linking variables to one
another in the system Chou En-lai (1898-1976) - asked for his assessment of the effects of the French Revolution At what minute did most people enter the bar?
At what minute did most people leave the bar? At what minute were most people in the bar? At what minute were fewest people in the bar? A stock-flow diagram
Entering In the bar Leaving COCAINE PREVALENCE IN THE USA
Survey data suggested lifetime prevalence estimates .were falling rapidly in the latter part of 1980s Argument for more resources to support policies of .interdiction & incarceration (rather than prevention) ;But reported decline physically impossible (Homer) Survey collected biased data- first time
cocaine use Current & Past Users (lifetime prevalence) death from
all causes Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information 7 +2 George Miller, Psychological Review 63:2 (1956) pp. 81-97
5 variables A, B, C, D, and E A A= f (B,C,D) B= f (C, E) C= f (B,A)
B C D= f (C, E) E= f (B,C) E
D Who are the most important people involved in securing the safe passage of an aircraft from A to B?
DYNAMICS OF AN EPIDEMIC MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIV/AIDS MODEL Number of Feature
equations (approx) Year (quarter) of introduction Project-based model 13
1987(2) Variable infectivity 20 1989(1)
Heterogeneity & changing behaviour 47 1990(2) Reporting delay & fitting model to data
2001(3) Effects of regression in behaviour after HAART (fitting to HIV data) Estimated Numbers & Percent on HAART at end-1998
Homo/bisexual men only Estimated Number of Patients U.K. 10734 France 17500 Germany
10359 Netherlands 2069 Percent of total 67% 64% 69%
76% FASHION ITEM DYNAMICS TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN ISLAND ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN
AN ISLAND TOURIST ECONOMY Need a balance between economic gain and environmental conservation. For: jobs; tax revenue; foreign currency earnings Against: environmental pollution; higher cost of living; migration from agriculture to tourist services
Environmental deterioration might affect the numbers and/or mix of tourist visitors no rail links - congested motorways Reina Sofia airport congestion obsolete tourist facilities; poor professional training Issues:
water supply waste collection and treatment communications health care noise pollution public safety DIFFUSION OF AN INNOVATION
Barriers to innovation: QWERTY Keyboard : Sholes vs Dvorak VHS video format vs Betamax Sharp take-off innovations: CAT scanners Mobile phones
CLUBBED TO DEATH (Student Direct Dec. 2002) Superclubs are suffering Renaissance; Gatecrasher, Cream. How did things go so wrong? Competition more clubs and (now) bars. Merchandising (In 2000, 5% of MoS
profits came from the clubs). Big name DJs charged at least 10K per set. Higher door prices. spin-off merchandising 2 (brand awareness)
+ + + 1 visiting rate + profits + +
numbers in club per club per week - 6 3 new bar + 4
openings + + new club DJ fees openings average club
5 door price+ SARAWAK (EAST MALAYSIA) CORAS/CER Two year research project Economic model for the State Government
Model Purpose? Map of Borneo GDP RM Millions Sarawak Gross Domestic Product 1980 1999
Ecotourism brings in one-quarter of all foreign money. ... Belize: reefs, caves, and rainforests. Biodiversity boosts economies through tourism and recreation. A powerful incentive to preserve natural areas . Reduce impacts on the landscape and species.
La crisi de l'escolàstica i el nominalisme de Guillem d'Occam3.2 Guillem d'Occam (1290-1349) Pàgina 148. El problema de la realitat: el nominalisme. La concepció dels universals. La realitat és individual (tant en l'ordre . ontològic. com .
Learning curve/change peoples ways. Storage limitations with current infrastructure. Prior to the implementation of MS SP 2013 we had limited space available for site. ( Upgrade made available 24TB of space although we still may put quota limitations on sites...
Documenting Software Architectures Outline Introduction Uses of Architectural Documentation Views Choosing the Relevant Views Documenting a View Documentation across Views Unified Modeling Language Summary Introduction The software architecture plays a central role in system development and the organization that produces...
When three or more lines intersect at one point, the lines are said to be concurrent. The point of concurrency is the point where they intersect. In the construction, you saw that the three perpendicular bisectors of a triangle are...
Today, we're going to talk about defensive driving techniques that will help you avoid traffic accidents so you will always arrive at your destination safe and sound. * Slide Show Notes The main purpose of this session is to talk...