The Black Death of 1348: Short-Term versus Long-Term View

The Black Death of 1348: Short-Term versus Long-Term View

The Chosen Few Ninth CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institutions (CISEI) 26/06/2013 Capri 1 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 2 We document three puzzles Jewish population dynamics 60-600 decreased 5.5 to 1.5 M 1250-1500 decreased 1.2 to 0.8-1.0 M Occupational selection (750-900, Muslim Middle East)

Jews left farming and entered urban, skilled occupations Jewish Diaspora and minority status (8001200) The migrations of Jewish *skills* 3 Jewish population dynamics 65 100 150 300 550 650 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 Mesopotami a

1 1 1-1.2 1-1.2 0.8-1 0.7-0.9 Egypt 1 0.8-1 0.5 __ __ 0.004 Syria 0.20.4 many some few

few 0.005 Asia Minor 0.20.4 many some few few 0.040 Eastern Europe __ __ __ __ __ __ Western

Europe 0.10.2 some some few few 0.001 5-5.5 4.34.5 3.13.3 1.92.1 1.2-1.5 1-1.2 4 Land of Israel Total Jewish Pop Jewish Population Dynamics 1170

1300 1400 1490 Land of Israel 0.002 Mesopotamia, Persia 0.8-1.0 __ __ 0.250.35 Egypt, North Africa 0.07 __

__ 0.005 Syria 0.02 __ __ 0.007 Balkans, Eastern Europe 0.047 0.065 __ 0.09 Western Europe 0.103 0.385 __ 0.510

1.2-1.5 __ __ 0.8-1 70 __ __ 87.5 1.6% __ __ 1% Total Jewish Population Total Population Jewish as % of 5 Jewish occupational transition Time Location

1 400 750 900 Farmers (%) Crafts, Trade, Money lending (%) Land of Israel 85-90 10-15 Mesopotamia 85-90 10-15 Egypt 70-80 20-30 Syria 85-90 10-15

Asia Minor and Balkans 40-50 50-60 Western Europe 70-80 20-30 Land of Israel 20-30 70-80 Mesopotamia 10-20 80-90 Egypt 10-20 80-90 Syria 10-20

80-90 6 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 7 The Chosen Few: Why? Jewish Population Dynamics 65 C.E. - 1492 from 5.5 to 1 M Common answer: Jews were oppressed and persecuted Occupational Selection 750-900 to today Common answer: Restrictions on minority Jewish Diaspora and Minority Status Common answer: Jews were forced to leave 8

Why are the Jews merchants, urban dwellers, entrepreneurs, money lenders and doctors? Economic Restrictions (e.g., Cecil Roth) Persecutions & Portable Human Capital (e.g., Brenner & Keefer) The Economics of Small Minorities Slezkine) (e.g., Weber ; Kuznets; 9 Is there a common factor behind the three historical patterns? Our answer A shift in the religious norm after 70 brought these longterm economic and demographic outcomes 12 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority?

Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E. 200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 13 First historical accident, 70 200 BCE 70 70 70 200 Many religious groups (Sadducees, Pharisees, Essenes, Zealots) Temple in Jerusalem destroyed by Romans Leadership of rabbis Pharisees: stress the study of

Written and Oral Torah (Law) Pharisees became religious leaders About 64 Religious norm: fathers must send sons to school to Sacrifices replaced with study of the Torah in The Mishna (c. 200) 6 volumes of rules for daily life From 200 ammei ha-aretz 14 (illiterate people) considered outcast First historical accident, 70 200 BCE 70 70 70 200

Many religious groups (Sadducees, Pharisees, Essenes, Zealots) Temple in Jerusalem destroyed by Romans Leadership of rabbis Pharisees: stress the study of Written and Oral Torah (Law) Pharisees became religious leaders About 64 Religious norm: fathers must send sons to school to Sacrifices replaced with study of the Torah in The Mishna (c. 200) 6 volumes of rules

for daily life From 200 ammei ha-aretz 15 (illiterate people) considered outcast First historical accident, 70 200 BCE 70 70 70 200 Many religious groups (Sadducees, Pharisees, Essenes, Zealots) Temple in Jerusalem destroyed by Romans Leadership of rabbis Pharisees: stress the study of Written and Oral Torah (Law) Pharisees became

religious leaders About 64 Religious norm: fathers must send sons to school to Sacrifices replaced with study of the Torah in The Mishna (c. 200) 6 volumes of rules for daily life From 200 ammei ha-aretz 16 (illiterate people) considered outcast Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders,

10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 17 Based on economic theory: What are the implications of the change in religious norms? Model: Hebrew literacy has no economic returns for subsistence farmers but religious (utility) returns for Jews. School is costly. Jewish farmers decide whether to send boys to school (synagogue) and whether to convert to other religions Jews are heterogeneous in religiosity, income, ability, etc. Result 1: Some Jewish farmers educate their boys. Non-Jews farmers do not educate their boys. Cost of education cause some Jewish farmers to convert - Who? low attachment, low ability, low income: ammei-haaretz Implication: In the long run Judaism cannot survive in a subsistence farming society. 18 Model (continued) Result 2: Jewish farmers who learn in synagogue to read (write) have a comparative advantage in

occupations and locations in which reading, writing contracts and communication have high economic returns. 19 Testable implications on conversions and Jewish population dynamics At a given point in time: Heterogeneity among Jews (x, , , e), some Jewish farmers do not educate their children and convert More conversions occur when aggregate economic conditions are bad (low wF, high rF) and in small communities (high ) In the long-run, Judaism cannot survive in a subsistence farming society as Jewish farming population is decreasing. Reduction in Jewish population can be halted: 1.with increased demand for literate occupations: Expansion of urbanization and trade 25 2. with migrations to opportunities Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250

Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 26 Jews in the Talmud Era (200-650): The Chosen Few [childrens education] In subsistence farming economy: investment in children's education is a costly religious sacrifice with no economic return A typical familys budget in Roman Palestine food expenses = 40-50% taxes = 30% little was left to buy clothing, books, paying teachers and build synagogue 27 Cost of living (in denarii), 1st-3rd centuries Items in a household budget Land of Israel Egyp t

Babyl on 72-96 Monthly wage of agricultural worker 24-48 4-32 Monthly wage of urban skilled worker 48-72 6-40 --- 2-10 10-20 5-10 100-200 15100 30 --- 4

--- Monthy wage of boy on farm work Monthly bread expenses (family of four) Cattle (ox or cow) Suit/cloak Monthly rent of a house 28 Despite being costly, primary education/literacy became spread in Jewish communities from 200 to 650 EVIDENCE Many rulings in the Talmud on school and teacher - Judaism unique Archeological findings on synagogues Growth of academies in Babylon: more students with primary education The Kallah From 6th century: Responsa 29 Sample of synagogues, ca. 200-500 Century 3rd Locations Baram, Gush Halav, Horvat, Horvat Shema, Kefar Kana, Nevoraya, En-Gedi, Eshtemoa

3rd -4th Chorazin, Gush Halav, Hammat Gader, Hammath Tiberias, Khirbet Shema, Maoz Hayyim, Meiron, Nabratein, Rehov, Horvat Sumaqa, Horvat Rimmon 4th Arbel, Capernaum, Horvat ha-Amudin, Meroth, Beth Alpha, Beth Shean, Maoz Hayim, Gaza, Horvat Susiya, Naaran, Zuminra 3rd, 5th Anim, Aphik, Dabbura, Kefar Hananiah 5th Assalieh, En Neshut, Horvat Kanef, Katzrin, Huseifa, Hirbet Amudin, Yaifia, Sepphoris 30 Jews in the Talmud Era (200-650): The Chosen Few [conversions] Evidence from population dynamics, c. 1-650 Evidence from literary and epigraphic sources, 1-325 Evidence from literary sources, 325-650 31 65

Revolt in Egypt (115) Bar Kokhba revolt (135) 100 150 300 550 650 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 Mesopotami a 1 1 1-1.2 1-1.2 0.8-1

0.7-0.9 Egypt 1 0.8-1 0.5 __ __ 0.004 Syria 0.20.4 many some few few 0.005 Asia Minor 0.20.4 many

some few few 0.040 Eastern Europe __ __ __ __ __ __ Western Europe 0.10.2 some some few

few 0.001 5-5.5 4.34.5 3.13.3 1.92.1 1.2-1.5 1-1.2 32 Great revolt, Temple (70) Land of Israel Total Jewish Pop Jews in the Talmud Era (200-650): The Chosen Few [conversions] Evidence from population dynamics, c. 1-650 Evidence from literary and epigraphic sources, 1-325 Locations with Christians included also Jewish populations:

Only from 150 Christians were not considered Jewish. Evidence from literary sources, 325-650 Laws protecting Jewish converts 33 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 42 If all Jews were literate in 650, why were they still farmers in 650? Given rural subsistence economies in 4th-7th centuries, literate Jewish farmers could not find urban skilled occupations 43

Second historical accident, c. 632 Mohammed established Islam and set the foundations of one of the largest, most urban, and commercially developed empires in history 44 Urbanization expanded in newly established Abbasid Empire 8th 9th Total centuries Population (thousands) Baghdad 6001,000 Samarra Basra Cairo ca. 1170 500 200-600 300 Palermo Paris Seville 150 110

80 Venice Granada 70 60 45 Jewish occupational transition: WHY? (it took 150 years --- consistent with other Time Location Farmers Urban skilled evidence) occupations (%) (%) 1 400 750 900 Land of Israel 85-90 10-15 Mesopotamia 85-90 10-15

Egypt 70-80 20-30 Syria 85-90 10-15 Asia Minor and Balkans 40-50 50-60 Western Europe 70-80 20-30 Land of Israel 20-30 70-80 Mesopotamia 10-20

80-90 Egypt 10-20 80-90 Syria 10-20 80-90 46 Why almost all Jews became urban dwellers (750 to 900)? The Economic Return to Jewish Religious literacy Literacy: knowledge of one language Hebrew enable to learn other languages (Hebrew-Arabic, Hebrew-French, Ladino, Yiddish) based on Geniza documents. Language enables to write commercial contracts and loans across locations. Jewish law enables to implement agreements.

The common language enables to expand mail network for religious, family and commercial contacts based on Jewish law and community penalties (Greif). The language enables Jewish artisans to write contracts for the production of shoes, clothes 47 and other personal items The theory of Jewish merchant: education and conversion Assumption: Merchants income increases from theirs and their son education Merchant's budget constraint: c + (ees) + rM wF (e1 + Aes e1-) Results: Education: Jewish merchants invest more than non-Jewish merchants in children's education. WHY? Conversion: (i) If taxes for Jewish and non-Jewish merchant are the same no Jewish merchant will convert. (ii)Over time, the proportion of merchants among Jews will increase. 48 Education: tons of evidence from Genizah and Responsa (900-1250) of almost 100% literacy among Jews. No or few conversions of Jews from 700 to 1200 Jewish Population Dynamics c. 650 c. 1170 0.1

0.002 0.7-0.9 0.8-1.0 Egypt and North Africa 0.004 0.07 Syria 0.005 0.015 Balkans, eastern Europe 0.047 0.047 Western Europe 0.005 0.103 Total Jewish

1-1.2 1.2-1.5 Land of Israel Mesopotamia and Persia 50 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 51 Voluntary Diaspora Migrations of Jewish *skills*, ca. 800-1250 Main insight from the model Judaism can survive in the long run only if Jews can find occupations with high returns to their investment in education

Historical evidence The voluntary migrations of Jewish people between 800 and 1250 support this argument 52 Migrations within the Muslim Empire (8001100) voluntary and free Jewish craftsmen, traders, physicians, scholars from Mesopotamia and Persia settled in Syria, Egypt, Maghreb, Spain, and Sicily The golden age of Jewish history Migrations to western Europe (850-1250) voluntary and regulated Jews migrated to England, Flanders, France, Germany, Italy upon invitation by local rulers --wealthy communities in hundreds of towns Because of high human capital and skills, Jews viewed as essential for economic growth No restrictions on Jewish economic activities 53 Sample of Medieval Charters Countr y City Spain France Englan d Germa

ny Year of charter Own Land Trade Money Lending Barcelo na 10531071 yes yes yes Tudela 1116 silent yes yes Toledo

1222 yes yes yes Valenci a 1250 yes yes yes --- 820 yes yes silent --- 1190 silent

silent yes --- 1120, 1170 yes yes yes --- 1275 yes yes no Speyer 1084, 1090 yes yes

yes Worms 1074 silent yes silent 54 The zenith of the Jewish Diaspora From the travel itinerary of Benjamin de Tudela (c. 1170) In Muslim Mesopotamia and Persia: 70 percent of world Jewry Muslim Iberian Peninsula: wealthy Jewish communities in hundreds of cities and towns (Sephardim) France, England, Germany: prominent Jewish communities in hundreds of locations (Ashkenazim) Jewish communities all over Italy, Bohemia, eastern Europe, Turkey, the Middle East, Egypt, the Maghreb, all the way to central Asia, China, and India 55 56 Genetic distance and conversions Contemporary Jewish populations show a closer

genetic link to Jews from far away locations than to their neighboring non-Jewish populations Especially the Ashkenazi Jews of eastern Europe are genetically closer to Jews from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as to other Middle Eastern non-Jewish populations, than to eastern European non-Jewish populations This provides additional and independent evidence that there were no significant conversions to, and out of, Judaism once the Jews became merchants and migrated to western and then eastern Europe 57 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 58 Why Money Lending?

Money lending is another form of commerce highly sophisticated; need contracts; enforcement; arbitration; capital. High interest rates on short term lending. Arbitrage among locations. High risk and high return Permits and taxes to rulers set in Privileges. Was it due to land restrictions? NO! Was it due to usury bans on Christians? 59 Time Location 325 Roman Empire Church prohibits clergy from charging interests on loans 500-1100 Europe Church extends usury ban to the laity --- ban not enforced 650-1250 Muslim Empire Quran prohibits Moslems from charging interest on loans 750 900 Mesopotamia and Persia

Jews left farming, moved to urban centers, and entered nearly 450 occupations (crafts, trade, moneylending) 850-1250 Europe Jews migrated from the Middle East to Europe as urban dwellers specialized in crafts, trade, and money lending From 1100 Europe Jews became prominent in moneylending. Jewish scholars (e.g., Rashi ) issued many rulings to regulate money lending during 11th and 12th centuries 1200-1350 1200-1350 1350-1550 Europe Europe Europe Church strictly enforces usury ban on Christians Craft and merchant guilds began growing Guilds dominated manufacturing and commerce 1350-1500 Europe

Restrictions on Jewish land ownership in some charters 60 Ch 1 Jewish population, locations, and occupations Ch 2 A persecuted minority? Ch 3 The people of the book (c. 200 BCE 200 CE) Ch 4 The economics of Hebrew literacy in a world of farmers Ch 5 Jews in the Talmud era (200-650 CE): the chosen few Ch 6 From farmers to merchants (c. 750-900) Ch 7 The educated wandering Jew (c. 800-1258) Ch 8 From merchants to moneylenders: selection or segregation? Ch 9 The Mongol shock: Can Judaism survive when trade an urban economies collapse? Ch 10 1492 to today: open questions 61 Third Historical Accident, 1258 The Mongol Shock (Could the Jews be farmers in the long-run?) The Mongols invaded Persia (earliest 1220) and Mesopotamia in 1256-1260 and destroyed the urban economy Because of massacres, starvation, epidemics, total population was reduced by half Jewish population shrank from about 800 thousands to nearly 200-300 thousands 62

Jewish Population Dynamics 1170 1300 1400 1490 Land of Israel 0.002 Mesopotamia, Persia 0.8-1.0 __ __ 0.250.35 Egypt, North Africa 0.07

__ __ 0.005 Syria 0.02 __ __ 0.007 Balkans, Eastern Europe 0.047 0.065 __ 0.09 Western Europe 0.103 0.385 __

0.510 1.2-1.5 __ __ 0.8-1 70 __ __ 87.5 1.6% __ __ 1% Total Jewish Population Total Population Jewish as % of 63 No evidence they migrated in huge numbers to western Europe (migrations to

Europe were regulated) Death rate from starvation and epidemics similar to local population Jewish death toll from massacres by Mongols was lower The much larger reduction in Jewish population in Muslim Middle East was the outcome of voluntary conversions Conversions among low-income Jews when the economy became a subsistence farming economy support our main insight 64 Ch. 1 70 C.E. to 1492: How Many Jews Were There and Where and How Did They Live? Ch. 2 Were the Jews a Persecuted Minority? Ch. 3 The People of the Book, 200 B.C.E.200 Ch. 4 The Economics of Hebrew Literacy in a World of Farmers Ch. 5 Jews in the Talmud Era, 200650: The Chosen Few Ch. 6 From Farmers to Merchants, 7501150 Ch. 7 Educated Wandering Jews, 8001250 Ch. 8 Segregation or Choice? From Merchants to Moneylenders, 10001500 Ch. 9 The Mongol Shock: Can Judaism Survive When Trade and Urban Economies Collapse Ch. 10 1492 to Today: Open Questions 65 1492 to Today: Open Questions Circa 1492

world Jewry: less than 1 million people 450,000 Sephardim (urban skilled occupations) Spain, North Africa, Greece, Turkey, Middle East, Iraq, Persia 450,000 Ashkenazim (urban skilled occupations) Germany, Netherlands, Italy, eastern Europe, Russia Circa 1938 world Jewry: about 16.5 million 2.2 million Sephardic Jews 14.3 million Ashkenazi Jews eastern Europe) (spectacular growth in Why this divergent demographic trend? 66 Kuznets (1963): An economic puzzle? Country Year % Jews in % Non-Jews in Nonagricultural

Nonagricultural jobs jobs Poland 1931 96 47 Soviet Union 1926 96 27 United States 1940 98 82 Latvia 1930

99 47 Germany 1933 99 83 Czechoslovak ia 1930 91 73 Hungary 1930 97 52 Rumania 1930 96

37 Bulgaria 1926 99 31 67 1492 to Today: Open Questions Jews make 0.2 percent of the world population, and 54 percent of the world chess champions 27 percent of the Nobel physics laureates 31 percent of the medicine laureates Jews are 2 percent of US population, and 21 percent of the Ivy League students bodies 26 percent of the Kennedy Center honorees 37 percent of Academy Award winning directors 38 percent of those on a recent Business Week list of leading philanthropists 51 percent of the Pulitzer Prize winners for nonfiction Why this persistence in economic and intellectual

success? 68 Why are the Jews a small population of merchants, entrepreneurs, bankers, financiers, physicians, lawyers, university professors? ( Rothschild, Ricardo, etc) 69 1492 to Today: Open Questions Nowadays, world Jewry is about 13 million people 40% in the United States (A) 15% in western Europe (A) 5% in the rest of the world 40% in Israel (A) (B) Jews in (A) display occupational selection (high-skill jobs) and have higher earnings than the rest of the population Jews in (B) have occupational structure similar to that of any

small European country or that of the general population of the United States Why this different occupational and earning structure? 70 A growing literature Interactions cultural values religious rules outcomes social norms economic Barro & McCleary; Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales; Iannaccone; Becker & Woesserman Doepke & Zilibotti Greif; Mokyr; Temin; Tabellini 71

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