A Landscape Scale Framework for Cooperative Grassland Bird

A Landscape Scale Framework for Cooperative Grassland Bird

A Landscape Scale Framework for Cooperative Grassland Bird Conservation STRUCTURED DECISION MAKING (SDM) A formal application of common sense for situations too complex for the informal use of common sense. R. Keeney SDM core elements PrOACT Problem Solve the right problem Objectives Describe the desired outcomes Alternatives Consider any reasonable approach Consequences Describe how well alternatives meet objectives Tradeoffs Incorporate values, optimal solutions Why SDM works Breaks a problem into key components Makes decision-making transparent Helps identify where the difficulty in making a decision lies Helps identify where effort ($$) should be focused Provides a wide array of tools for making smart decisions WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? OBJECTIVE To sustain viable grassland bird populations East of the Rocky Mountains. ALTERNATIVES AND ACTIONS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Status quo Conservation Design Outreach/Marketing Regulatory/Enforcement (Intl) Regulatory/Enforcement (US) Public Land Acquisition Best Management Practices (BMP) Policies: Ecosystem Services Economic Incentives ADOPT A PRAIRIE onnecting birds to landowner decisio birds grass birds = grass landowners landowners CONSEQUENCES (of alternatives, via landowners Regulatory behavior) Landowner (ESA, legislation, Knowledge/Risk values, motivations spp. of concern) LAND (Agricultural/Grass/Forest) $$ Return Ecosystem (hunting, Integrity (water Quality of Life agriculture, quality, (cultural, land grazing, bird biodiversity, ethic, hunting, watching, energy nativeness, wildness) development, carbon, erosion) conservation easement, potential future We did this for each of three landowner types, through the opportunities) nine alternatives, incorporating five objectives. CONSEQUENC ES What will a land owner decide for a Problem: given parcel of land? (Land can be grass, agriculture, or forest) Five Objectives: Bird Conservation (B) Carbon Sequestration (C) Water Quality (W) Economic Return ($) Biodiversity (BIO) Three types of landowners: a profit-maximizing producer a conservation-minded small farmer a conservationist Profitmaximizing Producer Conservation Outreach/ Regulatory/ Design Marketing Enforcement Public Land BMP Ecosystem Services Economic Incentive Status Quo Birds Carbon Water Quality Revenue Biodiversity 0 0 0 1 0 0.5 0.7 0.7 1 0.4 0 0.1 0.1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.1 0.1 1 0.1 0 0.2 0.1 1 0.05 0 0 0 1 0 Small Farmer Birds Carbon Water Quality Revenue Biodiversity 0.25 0 0.5 1 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.3 1 0.8 0.4 0 0.2 1 0.4 0.5 0 0.5 1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.5 1 0.7 0.7 0 0.5 1 0.7 0.7 0 0.4 1 0.6 0.5 0 0.2 1 0.5 Conservationist Birds Carbon Water Quality Revenue Biodiversity 1 0 0.5 0.8 0.7 1 0.7 0.7 0.8 1 1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 INFLUENCE DIAGRAM birds grass grass birds = landowners landowners CONCEPTUAL MODEL birds grass grass birds = landowners Species 1 Breedin g Migratio n Migratio n landowners Habitat 1 Habitat 2 Habitat 3 Habitat 4 Habitat 5 Migratio n Species 2 Breedin g Migratio n Winterin g Example Landscapes Conservation Design birds grass birds = landowners grass 1 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 2 Conservationist Landscape 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3

1 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

2 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 3

3 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 3

2 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2

3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 1

1 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 1

3 2 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 1

1 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 2

3 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 3 1 3 3 Ag Grassland Forest Profit-maximizing Producer Landscape landowners 3 3 1 1 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 MODELING APPROACH Species Breedin g Migratio n Winterin g birds grass Need to model how land changes affect birds within a landscape Use a spatially-explicit model to incorporate landscape-level effects (e.g., area, configuration, edge, etc.) on the biology of the species Breedin g birds grass Migration Nest succes s Breeding populati on Adult Surviv al Hig h Wintering Edge Effect Juvenil e Surviv al ? Nest Density Patch Size Edge Effect Landscape Model Breedin g Migration birds grass Wintering Egg survival decreased because forest cover increased Smallest pixel that can support a nest Nest site Nest density in grassland pixel as a function of land cover. Ag Grassland Forest birds landowner Biological Consequences Conservation Design Profit-maximizing Producer Landscape Conservationist Landscape 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1

3 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 3 1 3 1

2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 2

3 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1

3 1 3 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3

3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 1 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 3

2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 2

2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 1

2 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 3 1 1

1 1 1 3 1 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 3

1 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 3 2 1 1 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 3 3 1 3 Nest potential Nest potential 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0

0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0

0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1

1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0

0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 Breeding Migrati on Wintering Occupancy of grassland stopover habitat: - Grassland and cropland suitable at the local scale (pixel) - Negative effect of surrounding forest cover Survivorship in grassland stopover habitat: - Forage quality of surrounding landscape - Survival greater in grassland than in cropland Breeding Migration Winteri ng We represented a grassland birds interaction with the landscape during winter in a similar way to the migration framework. However, it was simplified in that only the individual pixel-level determined survivorship. We assumed that grassland birds do not use forest sites during the winter and that grassland pixels had higher survivorship than agricultural pixels. We further assumed that the over-winter survivorship rate was simply the average survivorship value of all suitable pixels. Integrating land cover choice and grassland models We generated five, 1.44 km2 landscapes that were each filled with 1600, 30-meter pixels. We assigned each pixel as grassland, agriculture or forest with the probability of each choice being determined by the alternative-generated results from the land cover choice model. We assigned one landscape to represent the breeding area, three to be migratory stopover areas, and one to be the wintering ground. Once the landscapes were generated, we applied the spatiallyexplicit model to them. Using this framework, we evaluated each of the 27 landowner by alternative combinations. We started each bird population with 100 birds and ran the model for 30 years. The effect of each alternative policy and landowner on the expected growth of grassland bird populations: POLICY Bird Population Growth Rate LANDSCAPE TYPE Profit-maximizing Small Farmer Conservationist Producer Conservation Design -0.12 0.03 0.09 Outreach/Marketing Regulatory/Enforcement International Regulatory/Enforcement - US 0.06 0.07 0.09 -0.11 0.03 0.05 -0.06 0.03 0.06 Public Land Acquisition -0.2 0.04 0.08 Best Management Practices -0.16 0.07 0.1 Policy - Ecosystem Service 0.03 0.09 0.1 Policy Economic Incentive 0.05 0.09 0.13 Status Quo -0.23 0.03 0.07 The effect of each alternative policy and landowner on the expected growth of grassland bird populations: POLICY Bird Population Growth Rate LANDSCAPE TYPE Profit-maximizing Small Farmer Conservationist Producer Conservation Design -0.12 0.03 0.09 Outreach/Marketing Regulatory/Enforcement International Regulatory/Enforcement - US 0.06 0.07 0.09 -0.11 0.03 0.05 -0.06 0.03 0.06 Public Land Acquisition -0.2 0.04 0.08 Best Management Practices -0.16 0.07 0.1 Policy - Ecosystem Service 0.03 0.09 0.1 Policy Economic Incentive 0.05 0.09 0.13 Status Quo -0.23 0.03 0.07 Model Result Identifying thresholds 0.2 Grassland Bird Population Growth Rate 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 -0.25 Percent Grass Expected from Policy 0.5 0.6 Progress Following the Workshop Allison Vogt connected us with the CEC and RMBO Grasslands efforts. Conference call with the CEC is leading to an expanded mapping effort to identify Grassland Priority Conservation Areas throughout eastern North America. Began communicating with Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory on developing full life cycle conservation Progress Following the Workshop Finalized Outreach Materials (fact sheet, presentation, poster) Engaging Bird Habitat Joint Ventures and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in annual cycle bird models and human dimensions research. Reaching out to regional working groups NEEDS FOR ASSISTANCE Expand participation in overall framework Does this make sense? What doesnt work? Decision makers who are they? Look for and engage other stakeholder groups whom are we missing so far? Identify support and funding needs Full-time coordinator! Funds to obtain missing information (i.e., migration and wintering grounds, demographic studies) Begin gathering and compiling data to identify NEEDS FOR ASSISTANCE Develop teams around full life cycle conservation (breeding, migration, wintering) We will need to engage partners in Canada , US, and Mexico Specifically, we will ask partners to communicate and stay in touch, collaborate on projects, and prioritize filling data gaps. Maintain and expand coordinated network E.g., wintering grounds (Mexico and South America) WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS Coordinators: Katie Koch (USFWS, R3, Migratory Bird Program) Soch Lor (USFWS, R6, Inventory and Monitoring Initiative) Coaches: Eric Lonsdorf (Chicago Botanic Garden) Evan Grant (USGS, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center) Agency representatives: Marissa Ahlering (The Nature Conservancy) Laurel Barnhill (USFWS, R4, Inventory and Monitoring Initiative,) Tom Dailey (National Bobwhite Conservation Initiative) Ryan Drum (USFWS, R3, HAPET office) Connie Mueller (USFWS, R6, Lostwood NWR) David Pavlacky (Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory) Christine Ribic (USGS, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit) Catherine Rideout (USFWS, East Gulf Coastal Plain Joint Venture) David Sample (Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources)

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