Baseball: Its All in the Data Iowa Actuaries

Baseball: Its All in the Data Iowa Actuaries

Baseball: Its All in the Data Iowa Actuaries Club February 23, 2007 Not one of these plays was ruled an error Its All in the Data How an actuary got into sports

Case study: fielding the holy grail of baseball statistics Data is Everywhere Baseball data is like any other data Millions of statistics bottomless pit of numbers Our job: mine the nuggets that Are interesting

Are relevant Reveal tendencies Danny Cox 1987 NLCS STATS, Inc. began pitch-by-pitch tracking Danny Cox regular season 1987 First 70 pitches: .268 opponent batting average

Pitch 71+: .345 average Vin Scully mentions this at pitch 70 What Happened?

73rd pitch: line-drive double 74th pitch: long home run to left field 78th pitch: sharp single to right 81st pitch: line single to center 82nd pitch: Vin Scully falls out of the booth The Dream

Strat-O-Matic Baseball Bowie Dewan Statistician for the Chicago White Sox Computerized baseball Information The Michael Jordan Effect - 1993 1992: STATS tracks basketball Fourth Quarter Comebacks (down 15+ points) Bulls win NBA crown beating Portland after trailing by 15 entering 4th

quarter How hard is this? 1992-93 league record: 1-259 (excluding Bulls) The Bulls? Bulls record: 3-3 Jordan leaves Bulls Bulls record: 0-8

Jump ahead to comeback season League record 0-168 (excluding Bulls) Bulls record 1-1 The First Career Started as an actuary after college FSA in 1982

Head of two Actuarial Departments I loved what I did! But sports numbers are more fun than insurance numbers The Decision Bill James Baseball Abstract The dream takes hold Two full-time jobs

The risk Bunting: A Lost Skill? In 2006, Juan Pierre attempted to bunt for a hit 38 times Was he successful? Whats your guess?

9 hits (.237 average) 12 hits (.316) 16 hits (.421) 19 hits (.500) The answer is.

Bunting: A Lost Skill? 19 hits for an amazing .500 average!! The top bunters hit over .500 Here is a list of some of the other top bunters from 2006: Willy Taveras 21 bunt hits Corey Patterson 17 bunt hits Ryan Zimmerman 10 bunt hits (10 tries!)

The Second Career Collect data Develop products we want ourselves Money is not the object Have fun! The Second Career Bedroom Office Key clients: AP, USA Today, ESPN

Growing every year new office every year David vs. Goliath twice! 100+ Full-Time Employees Sale to FOX From The Fielding Bible Best defensive outfielder in 2005? Aaron Rowand, Chicago White Sox Made 15 more plays than an average

center fielder Basic plus/minus +15 Saving 30 bases for the team Enhanced plus/minus +30 The Third Career Five different jobs: Baseball Info Solutions Stat of the Week (WSCR)

The Fielding Bible ACTA Sports (publishing) Camp Dewan

Dewan Foundation & Mission Honduras Be Jolly, Inc. Case Study: Enhanced Fielding Analysis Plus/Minus System (from The Fielding Bible) Defensive Misplays Good Fielding Plays

Advanced Catcher Evaluation Game Charting at BIS Video scouts review every MLB game Every play entered into a computer Sample game scoring screen: BIS Scoring

Software Pixels to Data 28,000 pixels on the screen Location of every batted ball converted: Distance from home plate measured in one-foot increments One of approximately 260 vectors emanating from home plate

Also Chart: Velocity of each batted ball (soft, medium, hard) Type of batted ball (ground ball, line drive, fly ball or popup, bunt) New for 2006: fliner The Fielding Bible

Take a step forward in fielding stats Batting stats What do you think of when I say a player had 40 HRs do you get a visual image? How about 57 stolen bases? Pitching stats 39 Saves tells you something right away 2.41 ERA also tells you something

Fielding what does a .982 fielding percentage mean? Plus/Minus System Vector 17 example for shortstops Softly hit grounders to vector 17 converted to outs by all shortstops 26% of the time

Out made: +.74 (1-.26) Missed ball: -.26 Sum every play made or missed by every shortstop And You Get:

Derek Jeter: -22 in 2006 Adam Everett: +43 best in baseball Former Cub Corey Patterson: +34 Sox 3B Joe Crede: +22 Ichiro: Best outfielder over last three years at +59

Overall Eight of ten best teams in Top Nine Only Yankees and Red Sox made playoffs without a top defense Yanks worst in baseball in 2005 minus 164 as a team! The first two subscribers to our newest defensive service?

Yanks and Red Sox Defensive Misplays Plays that are NOT recorded as errors or passed balls Loss of an opportunity to make an out OR an extra advancement by a runner 54 different types of Defensive Misplays

Defensive Misplays Slow to recover Failing to cover first Cutting off a better positioned fielder Good Fielding Plays Fielder records an out when the play seemed more likely to be a hit

OR a fielder prevents the opportunity for advancement of baserunners. 27 different types of GFPs Good Fielding Plays Robs home run Ground ball out Holds to single

Alfonso Soriano Worst MLB second baseman in 2005 Most Defensive Misplays: 52 Worst NL Plus/Minus: -22 Reluctantly moved to LF in 2006 Some struggles learning the new position third most Defensive Misplays: 26 But . . .

Most Good Fielding Plays: 24 Second best Plus/Minus: +15 Most baserunner kills in MLB: 15

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • Behaviorism -

    Behaviorism -

    Behaviorism. John B. Watson argued that a true and objective science of psychology should only deal with observable events: stimuli from the environment and the organism's response to that stimuli. These psychologists thought of the mind as a black box...
  • CHP Combined Heat and Power (Waste Heat Recycling)

    CHP Combined Heat and Power (Waste Heat Recycling)

    Waste of Energy Grid Efficiency CHP Comparison CHP Deployment International Perspective US CHP Goal 92GW by 2010 National Energy Policy Florida's Energy Plan CHP is Technology Neutral Energy Intensities for Commercial/Institutional Buildings Industrial CHP Applications EES CHP Package Made in...
  • Chapter 12

    Chapter 12

    Faith, Fortune, and Fame * The Big Picture 1500 1700 1600 Tudor Dynasty in England African Slave Trade Stuart Dynasty in England Spanish and Portuguese Exploration English, French, and Dutch Exploration Golden Age of Piracy The World Imagined The Lure...
  • Coase Theorem Negative Externalities Consider the polluting factory:

    Coase Theorem Negative Externalities Consider the polluting factory:

    Coase Theorem. Market will internalize some externalities automatically. Opportunity cost. If homeowners are willing to pay to have externality reduced then the external cost . is. a cost to the firm. A profit maximizing firm will take into account the...
  • Financial Stability

    Financial Stability

    A stable financial system is capable of efficiently allocating resources, assessing and managing financial risks, maintaining employment levels close to the economy's natural rate, and eliminating relative price movements of real or financial assets that will affect monetary stability or...
  • Georgia Habitats

    Georgia Habitats

    Cottonmouth - water moccasin Piedmont Habitat - Trees The Live Oak is Georgia's state tree Georgia Pine Trees Sweet Gum Dogwood Piedmont Plants Cherokee Rose Iris Azaleas Georgia Mountains Habitat The mountains in Georgia were formed over a billion years...
  • A Skill Is Born: The Emergence of Web Site Design Skills ...

    A Skill Is Born: The Emergence of Web Site Design Skills ...

    Trees Marti Hearst Spring 2012 * Splay trees: automatically moves frequently accessed nodes to near the root B-trees: optimized for systems reading/writing large blocks of data, e.g., databases and filesystems Binary Tree Implementation root aaa ab aa a aab b...
  • Siebel On Premise to CRM On Demand Migration

    Siebel On Premise to CRM On Demand Migration

    On Premise to On Demand Migration. The intent of this presentation is to provide an overview of the 'On Premise To On Demand Migration' Approach. This presentation will also provide a high level summary of the tasks required to perform...