School Overcrowding in District 1 and Feb. 2017 Capital Plan ...

School Overcrowding in District 1 and Feb. 2017 Capital Plan ...

School Overcrowding in District 3 and Feb. 2017 Capital Plan Leonie Haimson and Olivia Levey Class Size Matters March 2017 [email protected] Scope of school overcrowding problems enormous 42% of NYC schools were overcrowded according to latest available data in 2015-16 (at or over 100% target utilization) 580,000 students (62% of total) were enrolled in these schools about 40,000 more than year before. Data: SCA Blue Book 2015-16 Yet February 2017 capital plan still very underfunded Funds fewer than 45,000 seats citywide about half (54%) necessary to alleviate current overcrowding and accommodate enrollment growth, according to DOE estimates. Only 29% of seats compared to DOEs analysis of need have sites and are in process of scope and design. There is a huge variation across districts and boroughs in the number and percent of seats funded compared to DOEs estimate of need. Bronx is the most underfunded borough according to the percent of unmet need for seats; Queens in terms of total number of unfunded seats. 41,177 citywide K-8 funded school seats District 1 has NO funded seats (Feb. 2017 capital plan) 6000

4885 4869 5000 4536 3840 4000 3150 3016 3000 2593 2221 1920 2000 692 456 456 1000 0 D2

D3 D7 D8 640 912 991 1000 912 456 1736 924 972 D9 0 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31 Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE 55% K-8 seats funded compared to DOE estimate of need data: Feb. 2017 capital plan 97% 100% 100% 76%

76% 61% 53% 63% 51% 44% 44% 56% 52% 47% 37% 35% 53% 52% 43% 37% 26% 0% D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31 D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE Citywide only 29% of needed K-8 seats have sites & in the design process 4 districts have NONE of their needed seats in process (D7,D9, D14 & D22 with total need of 4462 seats) (Feb. 2017 capital plan)

100% 100% 70% 33% 31% D2 D3 D7 0% D8 D9 9% 42% 37% 38% 30% 28%

22% 0% 42% 37% 22% 21% 19% 13% 0% 0% D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31 Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE Funded vs. unfunded high school seats by borough (Feb. 2017 Capital Plan) 4,500 4,078 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,802

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 345 55 DOE claims no more HS seats needed in Manhattan, Bronx or Brooklyn Here are the 12 most overcrowded districts according to DOE data Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book Districts that average 100% utilization and over according to DOE 1.4 126% 1.2 121% 121% 115% 109% 108%

104% 104% 103% 102% 101% 100% D15 D10 D30 D31 D11 D27 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 D20 D25

D26 D24 D28 D22 14 Districts Between 99% - 80% Utilization District 3 at 87% Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book Districts at 99% to 80% utilization according to DOE 1.2 1 99% 95% 93% 93% 93% 91% 91% 90%

89% 87% 87% 86% 83% 81% D3 D5 D13 D1 D14 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 D21 D9 D6

D4 D12 D29 D2 D8 D7 Here are the 6 least overcrowded Districts Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book Districts at 79% to 50% utilization 79% 78% 72% 68% 67% 53% D17 D19 D23 D18

D32 D16 Yet, 18 Schools in District 3 at or over 100% - 9,736 students or 40% of total in these schools (Co-located Charters & HS included) Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book District 3 - Schools at and over 100% utilization 188% 139% M LE R HA K LIN ER T AR CH OL O H SC 1 S.

. P O LL E OR FI 99 127% IA D AR U G LA HS M LE R HA 122% 3 S. . P

33 SS E CC SU 122% Y M E AD C A IV 112% 1 S. . P 112% 63 81 M 1 ED

SP M LE R HA 109% 4 S. . P SS E CC SU 52 108% .2 .I S Y M E AD C A 50

ER T AR H C 107% OL O H SC 105% 9 S. . P W NE 104% .2 .I S 56 104% .8

.I S Y IT N TU R PO P O 62 ER T AR H C 103% OL O H SC 102% 3 S. . P 34

101% 8 S. . P UR T FU 4 100% 1 S. . P ER D EA L E 49 ER T AR H SC

100% OL O H SC District 3 Overcrowding (includes Charters in district buildings & HS) 29% of schools in District 3 are at or above 100% utilization 40% of students are in District 3 schools at or above 100% utilization 80 cluster rooms are missing from District 3 schools according to DOEs utilization formula Yet we dont trust DOEs need estimates They are based upon an unreliable school capacity formula They are based upon unreliable estimates from housing starts using a CEQR formula that hasnt been updated in nearly 20 years They are based upon widely divergent enrollment projections from two consulting companies The methodology DOE uses to incorporate all these unreliable components is nontransparent DOE says they overlay projections from housing starts over consultant enrollment projections but unclear what this means Also DOE Capacity formula underestimates overcrowding by assuming overly large class sizes Relies on school capacity formula that assumes class sizes larger than currently exist on average in NYC schools in grades 4-12 (28 students in 4-8th grades; 30 in HS) Thus the formula would tend to force class sizes even higher Blue Book working group co-chaired by SCA President Grillo and CEC 2 President

Tanikawa urged that school capacity formula be aligned with smaller classes in DOEs C4E plan Mayors office rejected that recommendation in July 2015 DOE enrollment projections inconsistent DOE consultants Grier Partnership project a decrease of 59,000 students citywide between 2014 and 2024 -- 57,000 fewer K-8 students and nearly 2,000 fewer in HS. Statistical Forecasting projects over this same time period a decrease of 28,000 students --- 23,000 fewer K-8 students and about 5,000 fewer in HS. Yet by using the housing start data applying the City Planning ratio, there will be more than 63,000 additional students in 2024 about 27,000 more students in K-8 and about 17,000 in HS. The consultants forecasts also vary widely from year to year. For example, just two years ago Statistical Forecasting projected an increase of about 60,000 students over next decade instead of decrease of 28,000. Data sources: Grier and Statistical Forecasting May 2015; Statistical Forecasting July 2013, Housing start data, March 2016 Numerous problems with City Planning CEQR ratio City Environmental Quality Review (CEQR) ratio to project future enrollment from housing starts is borough-based rather than based on districts, neighborhoods or school zones CEQR ratio hasnt been revised since 2008 and relies on Census data more than 16 years old. Mayor vastly expanded PreK but CEQR ratio has not changed to account for thousands of new preK students CEQR ratio estimates each Bronx housing unit will add nearly 4X students than Manhattan, though birth rate & enrollment increasing faster than in Bronx 13 out of 32 districts, NO difference between housing start data for 5 yr and 10 yr projections Problems with school planning process Thresholds in city planning process very high A new residential project has to be projected to increase school

overcrowding by at least 5% to even consider need for new school -even where schools are already overcrowded In Manhattan it would take a project of at least 310 units to trigger consideration of new school Planning process does not take into account cumulative residential development only considers each proposed project separately. Other problems with DOE needs assessments DOE needs assessments dont account for rapidly expanding charter school population though most of these students attend schools in public school buildings DOE needs assessments claim to be neighborhood-based but define neighborhoods with extremely large areas DOE needs assessments do not differentiate elementary and middle school seat needs DOE needs assessments are infrequently updated Feb. 2017 capital plan includes needs assessment from Jan. 2016 School siting dysfunctional & inefficient There are overcrowded neighborhoods like Sunset Park where schools have been funded for more than ten years without a single school sited or built School Construction Authority only has three people on staff looking for sites for schools and one real estate firm per borough on retainer The SCA never uses eminent domain to acquire sites unless the property has recently been on the market SCA never cold calls meaning identify suitable sites before theyre put on the market to inquire if the owner is interested in selling After three years, in the class size reduction category, there are only 3 small projects identified so far out of 4,000 seats funded in the capital plan

We need a new planning process for schools So that schools are built along with new housing and not lagging years later In most large states and districts, developers have to pay an impact fee to help fund new infrastructure including schools, but not in NYC Without significant reforms, given rapid pace of development school overcrowding will become even more extreme What is being done about this? Public Advocate Tish James, 22 Council Members, Class Size Matters and many parent leaders pointed out many of the problems with school planning and siting in a letter to the Chancellor in June 2015 . Last week, Speaker Mark-Viverito announced that Council would form an internal working group to come up with proposals to reform the process. We hope that this process will be transparent, inclusive, and elicit ideas from experts, parents, and members of the public. Suggestions on how to elicit ideas for reform Reach out to Community Boards, Community Education Councils, advocates, parents and CBOs Elicit ideas and information from professional organizations of architects and planners about what is done in other school districts Hold forums and invite experts, activists and parents to speak Create a website with info on how to submit and post ideas As parent David Rosenberg wrote: We need a vehicle for involvement in the decision making process regarding siting and planning. We need to be seated at the table. It needs to be a partnership.

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