Project G for SG - Institute for Transport Studies

The link between appraisal and strategic models Tony May and Simon Shepherd (ITS) Project F Objectives Enhance existing predictive transport and land use models Identify those policy instruments which could most usefully be incorporated into existing models and develop and test ways of doing so Enhance existing sketch planning models so that they can be used more effectively and interactively by a wider range of stakeholders Develop our sketch planning models and network management design tools as pilot strategy generation tools Ranking of importance*satisfaction Ranking of Modelling issues [1] Combined satisfaction importance Score (0-1)[1] Restraint 0.58

Fares 0.55 Buses 0.53 Land use 0.53 LRT 0.47 Soft measures 0.43 Slow mode 0.42 Roads 0.41 Traffic management

0.36 Information 0.34 Note: The neutral score is 0.3175. Higher scores indicate a barrier. Score 1.0 would indicate Very important and not at all satisfied for all respondents. Case Studies MARS strategic model Leeds SATURN Various case studies (York Shrewsbury, Cambridge + theoretical) PT-SATURN Harrogate STM Strathclyde STEER York To be presented at a workshop on July 4th MARS in outline A land use transport interaction model

Reflecting year on year changes over a (say) 30 year period With a simplified representation of spatial structure and networks And with behavioural responses linked to a constant time budget Using Causal Loop Diagrams Designed to assess broad strategies interactively Able to complete a 30 year strategy test within a minute CLD for the transport model commute trips by car in MARS Workplaces Employed population + + Car availability + Population Car ownership Attraction Attractiveness of +

Total commute other zones trips + + -Attractiveness+ - + Commute trips by car Total commute time + + Time per commute trip + Time for other trips - by car

+ + Commute cost other modes + Commute cost by car + Time in car commute + B1- - Fuel cost B3- + Parking search time - B2-

Speed by car Time per commute trip by other modes B4+ - MARS - completed Representation of increased parking search time due to parking capacity Over crowding on public transport Quality factors for bus corridors Congestion added to the off-peak Heavy rail model incorporated for urban stations in Leeds MARS - planned

Add awareness campaigns as a policy instrument Add in population cohort approach Develop flight simulator front-end Link to Animap facility Test with Leeds Hold general workshop on MARS for all Local Authorities (November 2007) Links to appraisal Designed to output an agreed set of indicators Outcome indicators (e.g. CO2) Intermediate outcome indicators (e.g. by mode) Based on those developed in Project C Able to incorporate CBA or MCA objective functions Used elsewhere to identify optimal strategies for a given set of objectives Mode Share Off Peak - motorized Mode Share Peak - motorized 60 60

40 40 20 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Time (Year) 20 22

24 26 ms car peak : Sim 8_2 ms moto peak : Sim 8_2 ms car peak : Do-Nothing ms moto peak : Do-Nothing 28 0 30 Percent Percent Percent Percent 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 Time (Year) 20 22 24 26 ms car opeak : Sim 8_2 ms moto opeak : Sim 8_2 ms car opeak : Do-Nothing ms moto opeak : Do-Nothing Mode Share Peak - PT - Ped 28 30 Percent Percent Percent

Percent Mode Share Off Peak - PT - Ped 40 20 20 10 0 0 0 2 4 6 ms pt peak : Sim 8_2 ms slow peak : Sim 8_2 ms pt peak : Do-Nothing ms slow peak : Do-Nothing 8

10 12 14 16 18 Time (Year) 20 22 24 26 28 30 Percent Percent Percent Percent 0 2

4 6 ms pt opeak : Sim 8_2 ms slow opeak : Sim 8_2 ms pt opeak : Do-Nothing ms slow opeak : Do-Nothing 8 10 12 14 16 18 Time (Year) 20 22 24 26 28 30

Percent Percent Percent Percent MARS Output GIS (1) 14 MARS Output GIS (2) example for future use AniMap interactive displays animated spatiotemporal information with open-source software and open standards (Web server, PHP, MySQL, Internet Explorer, XML_SVG).