Current and Future IMF Capacity Development In Statistics

Current and Future IMF Capacity Development In Statistics

Current and Future IMF Capacity Development In Statistics Florina Tanase Advisor, Statistics Department (STA) March 2017 S TAT I S T I C S I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E PA RT M E N T M O N E T A R Y F U N D Reproducing this material or any part thereof should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source #6077051 Outline Capacity Development in Statistics 1 IMFEnhanced Data for Better Macro Policies and Sustainable Development 2 IMF Capacity Development in Europe Providing Support to Southeastern and Eastern European Countries STA Module under Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF 3 Work Streams on Financial Soundness Indicators and Balance Sheet 4 I M F Approach STA Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund Closing Gaps in Macroeconomic Statistics and Foster Financial Inclusion

S T A T I S T I C S 2 1. IMF Capacity Development in Statistics STA Mandate: The IMFs Statistics Department (STA) provides global leadership on macroeconomic and financial statistics. Our analytical, policy, and operational work advances the international statistical agenda and contributes to carrying out the IMFs mandate and core functions. STA capacity development (the transfer of technical knowledge and best practices through technical assistance and training) is one of the IMFs core activities and is integrated with surveillance and lending operations. Capacity 32 building activities: % Aim to strengthen capabilities to produce, compile and disseminate macroeconomic and financial statistics consistent with international standards; Increasingly focus on getting more and better data into the hands of policy STA FY2016 Spending by Key Outputs makers; and Oversight of globalparticularly Have increased by about 70 percent during the last seven years Multilateral surveillance 32% Multilateral systems; 17,044 5% surveillance; crisis. due to the rising demand in the wake of the global financial 2,470 ;32% 4.67% Capacity development; 28,423 ; 53.76% 9% 9%

Bilateral Lending; 66 ; surveillance; 0.12% 4,866 ; 9.20% Oversight of global systems 9% Bilateral surveillance Lending Capacity development I M F S T A T I S T I C S 3 1. IMF Capacity Development in Statistics I M F S T A T I S T I C S 4 1. IMF Capacity Development in Statistics Capacity Development of the Statistics Department Coverage during FY2016-17 Beneficiary Countries Regional Technical Assistance Center (RTAC) I M F S T A T I S T I C S 5

1. IMF Capacity Development in Statistics STA Medium-Term CD Architecture Field-based Regional Technical Assistance Centers RSS basics (close-to-full coverage) GFS basics (increasing coverage) ESS basics (limited coverage) Legend: RSS = Real Sector Statistics GFS = Govt Finance Statistics ESS = External Sector Statistics FSIs = Financial Soundness Indicators MFS: Monetary and Financial Statistics LLMICs = Lower and low middle income countries I M F Aim to fill gaps in coverage Financial Sector Stability Fund (LLMICs) FSIs MFS IIP GFS balance sheets S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T RSS GFS ESS

D4D Fund Policy-relevant high(LLMICs) frequency data and source data Topical gaps and expanded regional coverage on ESS Financial basics Access Survey (FAS) Online learning Statistical Information Management Bilateral & IMFs own resources Data dissemination Targeted CD, for example: - Regional harmonization - Source data - Other priorities Advanced economies 6 2. IMF Capacity Development in Europe Current CD: SECO-financed Project (since 2015) GFS in Southeastern Europe Enable compliance with EU requirements, including compilation and dissemination of GFS data following the ESA 2010 methodology Dutch-financed Project (starting now) Various topical CD in Eastern and Southeastern Europe

Focus on MFS/FSIs, ESS, RSS, and data dissemination Planned CD: IPA-financed Project (in partnership with Eurostat) GFS (SECO follow-up) and ESS in Southeastern Europe (from 2018 onward) I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T 7 2. IMF Capacity Development in Europe SECO-financed Project Phase I: October 2014 June 2016 Series of TA missions per country Two Regional Workshops in Ljubljana, March 2015 and May 2016 with Eurostat representation Phase II: September 2016 June 2019 Further TA Visits Regional GFS Advisor based in CEF, Ljubljana (Deon Tanzer) Annual regional workshops (March 13-17, 2017) including Eurostat representation SECO resources supplemented by IMF resources to enable complementary TA for Montenegro I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T 8 2. IMF Capacity Development in Europe SECO-financed Project Current fiscal data reporting: Albania: partial EDP tables, annual GFS data, public sector debt statistics (PSDS) data

Bosnia and Herzegovina: experimental EDP tables, annual and subannual GFS data Kosovo: annual GFS data Macedonia: some experimental EDP tables, PSDS data Serbia: most progress on EDP reporting I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T 9 3. STA Module under Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF) Balance Sheet Approach FSI Workstream Workstream Help countries assess financial sector structure, stability, and vulnerabilities, undertake stress testing, and develop macroprudential policies. Provide TA/training to LICs and lower MICs in compiling and disseminating FSIs consistent with intl standards. Publish FSIs in IMFs FSI database (http//www.fsi.data.org) for use in SDG monitoring. I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T

Help countries develop and utilize a reporting framework to compile critical balance sheet data for the financial, external and government sectors to generate BSA matrices. Use matrices to identify crossborder and cross-sector financial linkages that could pose risks and vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Provide TA/training to LICs and lower MICs in compiling MFS, GFS, and ESS source data for use in FSSFBSA. size USD30 million, of which USD 5 million for STA CD (FY2018-23). Fundraising has started. 10 3. STA FSSF: FSI Work Stream FSSF FSI Work StreamBuilding on Successful CD Track Record 40 new FSI reporting economies since 2013 and growing 120 FSI reporters as of end 2016 I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T

11 3. STA FSSF: BSA Work Stream FSSF BSA Work StreamExample of Indonesia Banking sector is mostly exposed to NFCs and thus vulnerable to a shock to NFCs balance sheets NFCs exposed to currency and withdrawal risks because of large reliance on cross-border funding Provide CD on monetary, external and government finance statistics; Aims to identify cross-border and cross-sector finl linkages; Supports macroprudential policies and financial stability analysis; and Helps identify economic risks and

vulnerabilities that may affect financial systems. NBFI=nonbank financial institution; NFC=nonfinancial corporation; HH=household; ROW=rest of the world I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T 12 4. STA Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund: Overview Objective: Putting more and better data in the hands of decision makers to enhance evidence-based macroeconomic policies and support sustainable development goals Beneficiary countries: Low-income and lower middle-income countries worldwide Target period: IMFs FY2019-23 I M F M1 Financial Access Survey (FAS) Sustain and expand the Financial Access Survey M2 Addressing Data Needs and Quality Concerns Submodule Real Sector Statistics (RSS) Submodule External Sector Statistics (ESS) Submodule Government Finance Statistics (GFS) M3 Online Learning

Develop and launch 8 fundamental statistics courses (English and possibly Spanish and French) M4 Statistical Information Management Provide advice on statistical information management practices and related technical environments S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T 13 4. Data for Decisions (D4D) Fund: Module 1 Module M1: FAS Sustain the FAS as the authoritative source of supply-side data to measure financial inclusion. Four-fold objectives: (i) Ensure continued production of the FAS; (ii) provide policymakers and analysts with high-quality statistics on ongoing developments in the financial sector; (iii) provide monitoring basis for SDG financial inclusion indicator; and (iv) contribute to the research and policy agenda on financial inclusion, poverty reduction and gender equality. Traditional Coverage D4D FAS Work Stream Topical: Sustain and expand the Financial Access Survey

Conduct annual survey of 189 economies. Publish results on IMFs external website ( http://data.imf.org/fas). D4D FAS Deliver y Modes Global annual survey Outreach on analytical use of survey data Funding secured until April 2018. Proposed D4D Focus Continue to conduct annual survey. Expand the FAS to new areas relevant to financial inclusion (e.g., new access points, gender-related statistics and regulatory and other barriers, incl. costs to financial access). Enhance methodological basis and reflect rapid pace of financial services delivery and technological developments (e.g., digital financial inclusion). Provide research, outreach and implementation support. Enhance access to data and speed of dissemination.

I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T 14 4. STA D4D Fund: Module 2 Module M2: Addressing Data Gaps and Data Quality Concerns Three submodules to provide coverage of topical gaps identified based on needs assessment with countries. Five-fold objectives: (i) Provide policymakers with more and better data; (ii) help countries detect economic risks and vulnerabilities; (iii) bring more data into the public domain, thereby enhancing transparency and accountability; (iv) offer technical advice on enhancing source data and promoting higher-frequency data; (v) complement CD provision on bread-and-butter statistics, including in particular those provided through RTACs. RSS Submodule: ESS Submodule: Develop highfrequency indicators of economic activity; Offer technical advice to develop source data for core national accounts and price statistics, including by fostering interagency cooperation; Develop Real Property Price Indexes. Enhance trade statistics to address impact of trade liberalization and

globalization; Deepen financial account statistics to support spillover analysis. I M F S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T GFS Submodule: Develop high-frequency GFS and debt data; Offer risk-based support to help solve policyrelevant fiscal problems; Enhance institutional coverage, classification, and consistency of GFS; Expand scope of flows and stock positions. 15 4. STA D4D Fund: Module 3 Module M3: Online Learning Develop a new structured online learning curriculum to enhance reach of statistics training. Implement training courses as they become available. Design courses such that they become entry requirements for face-to-face advanced/specialized courses. Proposed D4D Focus Traditional Coverage A Basic online statistics

training course (currently under development) would be a precursor to any fundamental course D4D Online Learning Delivery Modes Global delivery Available 24/7/365 Advanced and specialized courses, including regional training and workshops, closely connected to TA delivery I M F S T A T I S T I C S Development and rollout of all 8 fundamental STA courses to be available online 24/7/365 Better Data for Policy-Making D E P A R T M E N T MFS/FSIs GFS/PSD IMF training on statistics

is provided through 8 face-to-face fundamentalSTA Basic Course courses NA/Prices Intermediate and Advanced/Specialized Courses BOP/ EDS D4D Online Learning Work Streams National Accounts, Prices, Government Finance, Public Debt, Monetary and Financial, Financial Soundness Indicators, Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, and External Debt Statistics Roll-out of Spanish and French online versions, depending on resource availability Passing candidates would receive a certificate as a precursor to face-toface advanced/specialized courses 16

4. STA D4D Fund: Module 4 Module M4: IT Supporting Statistics Develop advice to help statistical offices, central banks, and ministries to streamline, standardize, and automate their data management practices and infrastructure. Enhance countries ability to compile and disseminate macroeconomic and financial statistics. Traditional Coverage D4D M4 Work Stream National statistical information management advice No direct IT data support or advice at present, notwithstanding demand from countries D4D M4 Delivery Modes I M F Global delivery TA and training S T A T I S T I C S D E P A R T M E N T Proposed D4D Focus Advice to national authorities on statistical data management practices and

environments to support macroeconomic and financial statistics compilation and dissemination 17 Contact: Florina Tanase ([email protected]) Thank you S TAT I S T I C S I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E PA RT M E N T M O N E T A R Y F U N D Reproducing this material or any part thereof should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source #6077051

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