Climate Change Chapter 19 An Enormous Cloud of Air Pollutants and Ash from Mt. Pinatubo June 1991: Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) exploded Airborne pollutants, deaths, and damage Affected climate temperature James Hansen(NASA) cooled the temp of the earth by )0.5* over a
19th month period. Then the earth would warm Earths Future Temperature and Climate Change The overwhelming scientific consensus is that the earths atmosphere is warming rapidly, mostly because of human activities, and that this will lead to significant climate change during this century. Global Warming and Global Cooling Are Not New Over the past 4.7 billion years the climate has been
altered by Volcanic emissions Changes in solar input Movement of the continents Impacts by meteors Over the past 900,000 years Glacial and interglacial periods Global Warming and Global Cooling Are Not New Over the past 10,000 years Interglacial period, fairly stable climate and steady
average global surface temperature Over the past 1,000 years Temperature stable but began to rise during the last century when forests cleared, fossil fuel burned Over the past 100 years Temperature changes mostly since 1975 Different techniques.. Analysis of radioisotopes in rocks and fossils Plankton and radioisotopes in ocean sediments Tiny bubbles of ancient air found in ice cores from glaciers Temperature measurements taken at different depths from bore holes
drilled deep into the earths surface Pollen from lake/bog bottoms Tree rings Historical records - 1861 Estimated Changes in the Average Global Temperature of the Atmosphere Our Climate, Lives, Economies Depend on the Natural Greenhouse Effect ( Arrhenius)
Without the natural greenhouse effect, warms the earths lower atmosphere and surface. Solar energy absorbed by the earth radiates into the atmosphere as infrared radiation(heat) 1% of earths lower atmosphere is compressed of greenhouse gases- water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide Cold, uninhabitable earth Human Activities Emit Large
Quantities of Greenhouses Gases Since the Industrial Revolution (275 years ago) CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions higher Main sources: agriculture, deforestation, and burning of fossil fuels Correlation of rising CO2 and CH4 with rising global temperatures, during past 400,000 years Countries with the largest CO2 emissions- US, China, EU-27 contries, Indonesia, Russia, Japan, India Human Activities Emit Large Quantities of Greenhouses Gases
Per capita emissions of CO2 Scientific and economic studies 2007: Field and Marland 560 ppm by 2050 1390 by 2100 Tipping point 450 ppm 2008: Aufhammer and Carson Chinas CO2 emission growth may be underestimated Ice core analysis 60% of methane emissions human impact landfills, raising live stock, extracting fossil fuels
Nitrous oxide nitrogen fertilizers Atmospheric Levels of CO2 and CH4, Global Temperatures, and Sea Levels The Atmosphere Is Warming Mostly Because of Human Activities Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
9099% likely that lower atmosphere is warming 19062005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74C 19702005: Annual greenhouse emissions up 70% Past 50 years: Arctic temp rising almost twice as fast as the rest of the earth Melting of glaciers and floating sea ice Prolonged droughts: increasing Last 100 years: sea levels rose 1020 cm
Alaskas Muir Glacier Al Gore and the IPCC : Nobel Peace Prize Natural and humaninfluenced factors could have an effect on temperature changes The Big Melt: Some of the Floating Sea Ice in the Arctic Sea Drop in average cover of summer arctic ice
Scientific Consensus about Future Temperature Change? Mathematical models used for predictions Global warming: rapid rate Human factors are the major cause of temperature rise since 1950 Human factors will become a greater risk factor Model of Some Major Processes That Interact to Determine Climate
Comparison of Measured Temperature from 1860 2007 and Projected Changes Is a Hotter Sun the Culprit? Since 1975- satellite and balloon measurements Troposphere has warmed Stratosphere has cooled
Scientists have concluded that the rapid rise in global mean temperature could not be the result of increased solar output Can the Oceans Save Us? Solubility of CO2 in ocean water removes 25-30% of the carbon dioxide pumped into the lower atmosphere by human activities. Some of it converted to insoluble carbonate salts that are buried in the bottom sediments Warmer oceans Solubility decreases increases atmospheric CO2 Coral reefs destroyed
Increased acidity less carbon dioxide absorbed, increases growth of some algae drop in populations of phytoplankton, Antarcticas Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean decrease in carbon dioxide uptake There Is Uncertainty about the Effects of Cloud Cover on Global Warming Warmer temperatures create more clouds by increased evaporation of surface water Thick, light-colored low altitude clouds: decrease surface temperature Thin, cirrus clouds at high altitudes: increase surface temperature
Effect of jet contrails on climate temperature they expand and turn into cirrus clouds that release heat into the upper troposphere Outdoor Air Pollution Can Temporarily Slow Global Warming Aerosol and soot pollutants light colored sulfate particles, reflect sunlight and cool atmosphere sulfate particles also cool the lower atmosphere by forming condensation nuclei that form cooling clouds
Some Possible Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere The projected rapid change in the atmosphere's temperature during this century is very likely to Increase drought and flooding,
shift areas where food can be grown, raise sea levels, result in intense heat waves, cause the premature extinction of many species. Enhanced Global Warming Could Have Severe Consequences Very rapid, global change in climate projected rapid increase in average temperature in the lower atmosphere Worst-case scenarios
Ecosystems collapsing Low-lying cities flooded Wildfires in forests Prolonged droughts: grasslands become dust bowls More destructive storms Glaciers shrinking; rivers drying up
Stepped Art Fig. 19-7, p. 507 Severe Drought Is Increasing from 1530% less moisture in the soil NPP will decrease stream flows and available water will decline Biodiversity will decrease growth of plants/trees will slow forest and grassland fires will increase some lakes/seas will shrink and disappear, rivers will fail to reach the sea 1-3 billion people will face water shortage
dry climate biomes will increase savannas, chapparal,deserts Ice and Snow Are Melting global warming be worse in the polar regions exposure of darker land, absorb more solar radiation floating sea ice disappearing could affect the average rate of precipitation in certain areas Mountain glaciers affected by Average snowfall, adds to mass in winter Average warm temperatures- apur their melting during the summer
Ice and Snow Are Melting Europes Alps Glaciers are disappearing South America Glaciers are disappearing Greenland Warmer temperatures Areas of Glacial Ice Melting
in Greenland Melting Ice in Greenland Largest island: 80% composed of glaciers 10% of the worlds fresh water 19962007: net loss of ice doubled Effect on sea level if melting continues Sea Levels Are Rising 90-99% certainity Expansion of warm water and melting of land based ice
Water will rise 18-59 cm (0.6-1.9 feet) during this century storm surges of 6 meters (20 feet) accompanying tropical cyclones and tsunamis Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs Disruption of coastal fisheries Flooding of Sea Levels Rising
Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas Agricultural lowlands and deltas Contamination of freshwater aquifers Submergence of low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean Maldives- Indian Ocean Projected Decline in Arctic Tundra in
Portions of Russia from 2004 - 2100 Melting of permafrost in tundra soils releases methane and carbon di oxide Loss of arctic tundra-reduce grazing lands for caribou Boreal vegetation would replace tundra Ocean Currents Are Changing but the Threat Is Unknown Melting glaciers, particularly in Greenland Increased rain in the North Atlantic Could add enough fresh water to disrupt the flow of deep and shallow ocean
currents Could climate of Northern Europe. N. America and Japan Not thought to be an immediate problem on the ocean currents Extreme Weather Will Increase in Some Areas Heat waves and droughts in some areas- kill people, reduce crop production, expand deserts Prolonged rains and flooding(flash floods) from heavy and prolonged precipitation Will storms get worse? More studies needed Saunders and Lea (2008)
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita lost 320 million big trees Global Warming Is a Major Threat to Biodiversity Most susceptible ecosystems
Coral reefs Polar seas Coastal wetland High-elevation mountaintops Alpine and arctic tundra Changes in water temperature, relative to coral bleaching threshold 30% of land based plants and animals will disappear (temp change 1.5-2.5*C)
What about Global Warming Is a Major Threat to Biodiversity Migratory animals Forests Some organisms will increase Insects, Fungi, Microbes
Exploding populations of mountain pine beetles Destroy lodge pole pine forests Climate Change Will Shift Areas Where Crops Can Be Grown Regions of farming may shift
Decrease in tropical and subtropical areas Increase in northern latitudes Overall food productivity would decrease because of less productivity soil Decrease in food production in farm regions dependent on rivers fed by snow melt Genetically engineered crops more tolerant to drought Climate Change Will Threaten the Health of Many People Deaths from heat waves will increase Deaths from cold weather will decrease
Higher temperatures can cause Increased flooding Increase in some forms of air pollution, more O3 More insects, microbes, toxic molds, and fungi Norman Myers 150 to 200 million environmental refugees in this century What Can We Do to Slow Climate Change.. To slow the rate of global warming and climate change, we can increase energy efficiency,
sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rely more on renewable energy resources slow population growth. What Can We Do to Slow Climate Change? Governments can subsidize energy efficiency and renewable energy use, tax greenhouse gas emissions, set up cap-and-trade emission reduction systems, help to slow population growth.
Dealing with Climate Change Is Difficult Global problem Long-lasting effects Long-term political problem Harmful and beneficial impacts of climate change unevenly spread Many proposed actions disrupt economies and lifestyles What Are Our Options? Two approaches Drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions Recognize that some warming is unavoidable and devise strategies to reduce
the harmful effects of global warming Will we reach a political tipping point before we reach irreversible climate change tipping points? We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Input or prevention strategies Improve energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel use Shift from non-renewable carbon-based fossil fuels to a mix of carbon-free renewable energy resources Stop cutting down tropical forests
Output strategy Capture and store CO2 - Avoiding Catastrophe: We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Socolow and Pacala Climate stabilization wedges Keep CO2 emissions to 2007 levels by 2057 Brown: need to do more Cut CO2 emissions by 80% by 2020
2008 book: Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Output solutions Massive global tree planting 4 billion need to be planted Wangari Maathai Great Wall of Trees: China and Africa Plant fast-growing perennials such as switch grass on degraded land which takes carbon dioxide from the air and stores it in the soil. Can be used to produce ethanol
SOLUTIONS Global Warming Prevention Cleanup Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal) Remove CO2 from smokestack and vehicle
emissions Store (sequester) CO2 by planting trees Sequester CO2 deep underground (with no leaks allowed) Sequester CO2 in soil by using no-till cultivation and taking cropland out of production Sequester CO2 in the deep ocean (with no leaks
allowed) Repair leaky natural gas pipelines and facilities Use animal feeds that reduce CH4 emissions from cows (belching) Shift from coal to natural gas Improve energy efficiency Shift to renewable energy resources Transfer energy efficiency
and renewable energy technologies to developing countries Reduce deforestation Use more sustainable agriculture and forestry Limit urban sprawl Reduce poverty Slow population growth Fig. 19-13, p. 515
Fifteen Ways to Cut CO2 Emissions Stepped Art Fig. 19-14, p. 515 Some Output Methods for Removing CO2 from the Atmosphere and storing it Oil rig Tanker delivers CO2 from plant Coal power to rig
plant CO2 is pumped down from rig for disposal in deep ocean or under seafloor sediments Abandoned oil field Tree plantation
Switchgrass Crop field CO2 is pumped underground Spent oil or natural gas reservoir
Spent coal bed cavern Deep, saltwater-filled cavern = CO2 pumping = CO2 deposit Fig. 19-15, p. 516 Is Capturing and Storing CO2 the Answer? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) involves removing carbon dioxide from the smoke stacks of coal- burning power and industrial plants and
storing them somewhere Several problems with this approach Power plants using CCS More expensive to build None exist
Unproven technology Large inputs of energy to work promotes continued use of coal Effect of government subsidies and tax breaks Stored CO2 would have to remain sealed forever: no leaking Use Geo-Engineering Schemes to Help Slow Climate Change.. CCS large scale geo engineering scheme opposed by scientists because long term effects on earths energy flow, chemical cycling processes and vital biodiversity are unknown Injection of sulfate particles into the stratosphere by balloons, large jet
planes, giant cannons Huge amounts of sulfur dioxide injected into the atmosphere every 2 years Would it have a cooling effect? Would it accelerate O3 depletion? Use Geo-Engineering Schemes to Help Slow Climate Change Remove HCl from seawater reduce ocean acidity. How would it affect the ecology ? Pump up nutrient-rich deep ocean water and cause algal blooms, remove carbon dioxide and emit dimethyl sulfide which will contribute to the formation of low clouds that would reflect sunlight
Re-ice the Arctic 8,000 ice making barges Wrap large areas of the glaciers with insulating blankets Cost to Slow Climate Change. Short-term costs lower Local and global economies may be boosted Provide jobs because of new technology associated with alternative energy Less expenses for remediation Governments Can Help Reduce the Threat of Climate Change
Strictly regulate CO2 and CH4 as pollutants Cap-and-trade approach-political advantage carbon taxes - levy energy taxes on each unit of fossil fuel that is burned tax pollution, not payrolls Increase subsidies to encourage use of energy-efficient technology Technology transfer-fund the transfer of green technologies to phase out older, energy wasting technologies Governments Can Enter into International Climate Negotiations: The Kyoto Protocol 1997: Treaty to slow climate change -2200 delegates from161 nations
1st phase 174 of the worlds 194 countries (but not US) ratifying the agreement by mid -2008. The Kyoto Protocol Reduce emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O by 2012 to levels of 1990 Trading greenhouse gas emissions among countries Not signed by theUS.(2001) 67% of ppublic upset President G.W. Bushs reasons-would harm US economy Cap and Trade systems need to have the caps set low to increase value of the tradable allowances Move Beyond the Kyoto Protocol 2004: Stewart and Wiener New treaty needed
Should be led by the U.S. Include China, India, Brazil and other developing countries that are getting industrialized and will be soon emitting the more than 50% of the worlds greenhouse gases Cap-and-trade emissions program Set up achievable 10 year goals to reduce greenhouse gases over the next 40 years Governments Are Leading the Way are Costa Rica: goal to be carbon neutral by 2030 78% from hydroelectric,18%
from wind and geothermal Norway: aims to be carbon neutral by 2050 China and India must change energy habits U.S. cities and states (27+ DC: solar and wind) taking initiatives to reduce carbon emissions 650 cities around the world, including 453 US cities reduce greenhouse gases Portland, Oregon 1993-2005 greenhouse gases at 1990 levels Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California (12th largest producer of greenhouse gases) Use of energy-efficient appliances and buildings
Incentives for consumers to use less energy Has saved California from building 24 new power plants California sued the EPA so that they and 17 other states can set tougher emission standards Some Companies and Schools Are Reducing Their Carbon Footprints Major global companies reducing greenhouse gas emissions- reduce 1065% below 1990 levels by 2010
Alcoa DuPont IBM Toyota GE Wal-Mart $12 million /year saved by using LEDs Fluorescent light bulbs Auxiliary power units on truck fleets no idling Carbon Disclosure Project
Some Companies and Schools Are Reducing Their Carbon Footprints Colleges and universities reducing greenhouse gas emissions Oberlin College, Ohio, U.S. 25 Colleges in Pennsylvania, U.S. Yale University, CT, U.S. Largest teach-In Feb 2008-1500 colleges, climate change and sustainability What Can You Do? Reducing CO2
Emissions Prepare for the Harmful Effects of Climate Change Reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible (50-85% cut in by 2050) to prevent the planet from heating up by 2*C Move people from low-lying coastal areas Limit coastal building Remove hazardous material storage tanks away from the coast Prepare for the Harmful Effects of Climate Change
Genetically engineer crops more tolerant to drought Stockpile 15 years of key foods Waste less water Connect wildlife reserves with corridors Which do you think is the most important ? Develop crops that need less water Waste less water
Connect wildlife reserves with corridors Move hazardous material storage tanks away from coast Stockpile 1- to 5-year supply of key foods Move people away from low-lying coastal areas
Prohibit new construction on low-lying coastal areas or build houses on stilts Expand existing wildlife reserves toward poles Fig. 19-17, p. 522
Voters entitled to vote by post. Relevant provisions of election law. Sec.20 of RP Act, 1950 - Definition of Ordinarily Resident. Sec. 60 of RP Act., 1951 - Special procedure for voting by certain classes of persons
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