Power System Flexibility Assessment InFLEXion flexibility ...

Power System Flexibility Assessment InFLEXion flexibility ...

Power System Flexibility Assessment InFLEXion flexibility assessment tool Aidan Tuohy EPRI Grid Ops and Planning [email protected] Iowa State University Seminar March 21, 2016 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Overview Introduction and Background EPRI Multi-Level Flexibility Assessment Approach Flexibility Requirements Flexibility Adequacy Metrics Conclusions 2 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Background 3 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Impact of Variable Generation: Increased Variability 2.500

MW - Luned, 30 Agosto 2010 2.000 MW - Luned, 29 Agosto 2011 MW - Luned, 27 Agosto 2012 1.500 1.000 More upward ramping capability is required when sun goes down 500 Increased requirement for downward ramping capability in the morning Need lower minimum generation levels to avoid over-generation Source: ENEL 4 23.00 22.00

21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 09.00 08.00 07.00 06.00

05.00 04.00 03.00 02.00 01.00 00.00 0 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Impacts of Variable Generation: Increased Uncertainty Example Wind Power Forecast Increased Operational Uncertainty Requires Capability to Respond to Unexpected Changes in Net Load 5 Source: Pierre Pinson, DTU, Denmark 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. When do we need flexibility? Generation & transmission

planning Need for flexibility adequacy Long to mid term Scheduling Seasonal behavior of variable generation Day-ahead Scheduling Day ahead scheduling with variable generation forecasts Intra-day Re-scheduling generation with updated forecasts Balancing

Balancing variable generation forecast errors Source: V. Silva, EdF R&D Need ramping capability for variability and uncertainty over multiple time periods Both physical and institutional sources of flexibility are important 6 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Consequences of Insufficient Flexibility Economic High reserve prices High cost energy Energy and Reserve Scarcity Reliability Area Control Error (ACE) Frequency deviation Load shedding Generator disconnection 7 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Planning Issue Reserve shortages Over-generation Under-generation Operational Issue RES Curtailment Options to provide flexibility Energy Storage Demand Response Generation Flexibility Transmission & Distribution 8 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Multi-Level Flexibility Assessment 9 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI Flexible System Planning R&D Flexibility Assessment Software Tool Screening analysis Resource adequacy: variability/uncertainty & operation methods Detailed flexibility evaluation Transmission impact on flexibility Flexibility metrics 10 Resource and Transmission Flexibility 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Utility/ISO Flexibility Case Studies Insights as to time

horizons concerns Order of magnitude of possible risk Flexibility Metrics for system planning Multi-Level Approach Levels 1 and 2 screening Levels 3 and 4 detailed metrics Three detailed metrics: Periods of Flexibility Deficit Expected Unserved Ramping Insufficient Ramping Resource Expectation Variability Analysis & Level 1 Flexibility Requirement Resource Flexibility Calculation Level2 System Flexibility Level 3 Metrics Post processed metrics based on Transmission and Fuel simulation or historical data Level 4 Constrained Flexibility White paper available on epri.com 11 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Inflexion Screen Shot 12 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Example Flexibility Assessment Study Southwest Power Pool (SPP) Wind Integration Study Recently completed study for SPP Part of larger wind integration study Other parts covering thermal and voltage issues Ramping analysis performed by EPRI Uses historical analysis to understand ramping issues How much does wind increase ramping? How much ramping was available? Baselines for future years not expecting flexibility issues for 2014/15 period studied Simulations of future years are also possible Installed wind during study period increased from 7.3 GW to 8.6 GW (now over 12 GW) Used actual dispatches, including some wind that was dispatched down as part of Dispatchable Variable Intermittent Resource (DVER) study 5-minute and hourly resolution market data for 1 year Provides example results for use of metrics and tool 13 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Flexibility Requirements 14 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Level 1 - Flexibility Requirements Aim: Understand how much flexibility is required and when it is needed. Concept: Time Horizons Concept: Direction Ramping occurs at a variety of time scales Magnitude and speed of ramping different in different time scales Resources can respond differently in different time horizons Upward ramps and downward ramps tend to occur during certain periods Resources ability to provide upward flexibility differs to its downward flexibility contribution 95 Up Flexibility Down Flexibility

Capacity 90 Power (MW) 85 80 Slower Variability 75 Min. Gen 70 Fast Variability 65 60 12:00:00 15 12:05:00 12:10:00 12:15:00

12:20:00 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Unit 1 Unit 2 Level 1 Flexibility Needs Variability Needs - Using historical production data Predictable ramping needs - Useful in planning horizon to characterize needs in: short horizons (< 10 mins.) longer horizons (> 5 hours) Uncertainty Needs - Using historical forecast error data

Forecast error induced ramping needs - Useful for identifying the need for operational flexibility for time horizons between 5 minutes and 36 hours Timing of Requirements - Helps to understand cycling requirements - Identifies changes needed to operating practices Seasonality Diurnal nature 16 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Maximum Inter-Hour Variability over different time

horizons Values are Ramp over given time period, starting from every hour in 8760 dataset 17 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Within-Hour Ramps as Function of Time Horizon Wind does increase ramping within hour also- by 5%-10% of installed capacity 18 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Differences between inter- and within-hour analysis results, due to data used More granular data used to study within-hour ramps compared to day ahead look in previous results more ramping is expected 19 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Curtailment Impact on Wind Ramping DVER can reduce wind ramp sizes, especially at very short intervals 20 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Curtailment Impact on Net Load Ramping

DVER reduces net load variability, particularly down ramps 21 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Seasonal Maximum 1-hour Wind Variability Generally wind showed more variability in winter But impact on net load was greater in summer for short time horizons (<3 hr) 22 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Largest 1-hour Wind Down Ramps by Hour of Day and Month Largest ramps in morning, particularly during winter and spring 23 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Impact of wind on largest 1-hour ramps by time of day and month Wind Increases Ramping in Some Hours, Decreases In Others 24 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-hour Wind Ramping as Function of Output Maximum

and 95th percentile 25 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Inter-Hour Ramping Mileage More general ramping behavior in hourly ramps when wind is added Approx 10% more ramping mileage when wind is 12.2% of installed capacity 26 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Flexibility Adequacy 27 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Level 2 Flexible Resources Aim: Understand how much flexibility is available from system resources Online Flexibility Offline Flexibility Flexibility limited by Flexibility limited by

Production level Ramp rate (MW/Min) Start up time (Hours) Minimum down time (hours) Capacity (MW) Minimum generation level (MW) Run up rate (MW/Min) Outages and availability Minimum up time (hours) Understanding the online flexibility available to the system will give an initial estimate of the overall flexibility of the systems resources. Understanding the contribution of cycling resources to ramping needs is critical to managing longer time horizon ramps. Increasing Speed Battery HVDC Hydro Recip.

Gas CT Gas CCGT Increasing Quantity 28 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Coal Nuclear Available upwards 1-hour Flexibility by hour Calculated based on actual dispatch more than 8 GW ramp in most hours 29 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Level 3 - System Flexibility Assessment Operations Ex-Post Analysis NERC Standards Control Performance Standards (CPS2) Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL)

Price spike magnitude and frequency Load shedding incidents 30 Planning Ex-Ante Analysis Reliability Analysis Early stage development EPRI Flexibility Metrics Ramp Forecasting Reserve price offers LOLE with Commitment & Dispatch Monte Carlo

scheduling and analysis 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Generatio n Expansion Early stage development Probabilistic expansion planning Flexibility Available and Net Flexibility Duration Curves Sorted data from high to low ramping requirements, then subtracted actual or potential needs always more than enough 1-hour ramping 31 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Level 3 - System Flexibility Assessment EPRI Metrics Periods of Flexibility Deficit Number of periods when the system has insufficient ramping capability to manage the expected ramping of the systems net load By: direction, time horizon and ramp percentile Expected Ramping Unserved Total shortage of flexibility when the system has insufficient ramping capability to manage the expected ramping of the systems net load measured in MW By: direction, time horizon and ramp percentile

th X r pe tile n ce up p m a r X th percen tile down ramp Time Horizon 32 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Periods of Flexibility Deficit Longer time horizons may require redispatch/recommitment, particularly

downwards load ramping which can be managed with DVER 33 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Insufficient Ramp Resource Expectation Probabilistically, very little problems with upwards ramping but need to think about dispatching wind down relatively often 34 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Summary and Conclusions 35 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Summary Increasing VG penetration is impacting system operations and may need to be considered in planning Flexibility is needed to manage net load variability Planning time frame methods and tools available Flexibility requirements Resource flexibility System flexibility assessment Can be integrated into existing and evolving planning processes Production Cost Tools for Simulating Operation EPRI InFLEXion metrics to post-process historical or simulated data

36 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Current R&D in the area of flexibility assessment Deliverability of flexibility Developing and testing a number of methods for how flexibility is deployed through the network A number of methods were developed and are being tested on realistic systems (likely ERCOT) Aim is to understand how existing and new transmission can be used to provide flexibility Resource Adequacy and Resource Expansion Understand how resource adequacy metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation can consider flexibility Investigate how standards such as Planning Reserve Margin can be adjusted to consider flexibility Examine if and how resource expansion tools should consider flexibility metrics Demonstration of InFLEXion and development of guidelines Projects to demonstrate the metrics, with vertically integrated utilities and ISOs, and improvements to InFLEXion through working with multiple end users Improving data handling capabilities and user interface of InFLEXion and vendor engagement to transfer technology (long term plan is to get metrics into vendor tools) Guidelines for flexibility assessment for utility/ISO planners based on experience to date 37 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. TogetherShaping the Future of Electricity 38

2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Appendix/Additional Materials 39 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Integrated Grid: Benefit Cost Framework Distribution System B Fee der Mode ls Hosting Capacit y Analysis Hosting Capacity Op ti mal Hos ti ng Capa city Locatio n Energy Fee der -Specific Hostin g Cap ac ity for DER

Substatio n Le vel Hostin g Cap acity for DER Feeder Clustering Based on Hosting Mitigation Evaluation A 1 Load Data Feeder Hosting Capa cit y An al ysis Bul k System Analysis Feeder Perfor mance Char ac te rization C Energy Analysis D Capa city Analys is

E Rel iab ilit y Analysis Fee der Cluster ing Based on Ener gy I mp acts 4 Benefit /Cost An alysi s Losses/Con sumption Result s E xtr apolated t o Sys tem Ener gy An alysis on B Sel ect Fe ed er s DER Performance Char ac te rization DER Data Thermal Capacity Capa city Analys is

Reliability Asset De ferral Benefit/Cost Rel iabil it y An alysi s Core Assumptions Market Conditions 3 Adoption/ Deployment Scenarios Resource Adequacy Existing Generation R esource Adequacy LOLE/ Reserv e Margin & Capacity Credit

System Flexibility Assessment Flexibility Metrics Transmission Performance Resource Epxansion New Resources/ Expansion Plan Reserve & Oper ational Changes New Reserve & Operational Modes Costs of new r esourc es Load

Forecasts Variab ility Pro files 2 Hosting Capacity PV & Demand Profiles (See Fig. 5.3) Resource Dispatches Flexibility Existing System Model(s) T ransmissi on Expansion Existing Network Model Frequency Impacts

T ransmission System Upgrades Reliabi lity Impacts Thermal / Voltage Impacts PQ & Protectio n Impacts 5 Pr oduction Costs & Marginal Costs Costs of mitigation/ upgrades Line Type Legend Data Input Final Result Feed-Forw ard Re sult Feed Back R esul t

Operational Practices & Simulation Transmission System Performance Studies Cost of Base Case Transmission Expansion Operational Simulations DER Scenarios Technology options Cost of Losses Cost of Scenar io Loss es 40

Societal Costs/Benefits System Benefits Customer or Owner Cost/Benefits 6 Bulk System Integrated Grid Bulk System Analysis Framework System Net Costs 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Integrated Grid: Bulk System Analysis 3 2 4 FLEXIBILITY 1 RESOURCE 5 OPERATIONAL

TRANSMISSION Integrated Grid SIMULATION PERFORMANCE ADEQUCY EXPANSION Bulk System Existing Generation Analysis Framework Value: Value: Examines the Value: Evaluates system potential Measures functioning performance ofof the transmission flexibility based Measures system

system thevariability future underand expansion on generation future transmission scenario options to in the uncertainty adequacy networkcost in future improve Provides system and Proposes actions scenarios performance to to resource Provides input into change expected

levels Considers operation thermal, transmission generation and information PQ, protection which Determines generation resources to meet guides and frequency minimum expansion reliability with investment impacts as wellfor mitigation cost processes on requirements options as losses. selected scenario

kinds of flexibility Provides system Evaluates Contributes required the by to into Provides input information for system effectiveness decisions (e.g. on short of operational other core term operational transmission or long term and simulation processes flexibility) policies resource(e.g.

process reserve, expansion scheduling times, 41 etc.) Load Forecasts Resource Adequacy LOLE/ Reserve Margin & Capacity Credit Resource Epxansion New Resources/ Expansion Plan Costs of new resources Cost of Base Case

1 RESOURCE ADEQUCY Variability Profiles Hosting Capacity PV & Demand Profiles (See Fig. 5.3) DER Scenarios System Flexibility Assessment Flexibility Metrics 2 FLEXIBILITY 3 OPERATIONAL SIMULATION Operational Simulations Reserve &

Operational Changes Technology options Resource Dispatches New Reserve & Operational Modes Reliability Impacts Production Costs & Marginal Costs 5 TRANSMISSION EXPANSION Existing System Model(s) Transmission Expansion Existing

Network Model Frequency Impacts Transmission System Performance Studies Costs of mitigation/ upgrades Transmission System Upgrades Thermal / Voltage Impacts PQ & Protection Impacts Losses 4 TRANSMISSION PERFORMANCE 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Line Type Legend Data Input Final Result Feed-Forward Result Feed Back Result Cost of Losses Cost of Scenario Flexibility Considerations & Metrics Many Regions (Regulators + ISO+ Utilities) Considering Future Flexibility Needs Now Planning and Operations time frame California Flexible Resource Adequacy Flexi-Ramp Market Product Long Term Procurement Plan Oregon Integrated Resource Planning Process Ireland Long Term Flexibility Incentives MISO Market Rule Changes to Incentivize Flexibility

Other systems experiencing similar needs (Renewables and/or Retirements) Germany, Spain, New York, Hawaii etc. New flexible resources now becoming deployable in the bulk system 42 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Industry Activities and Coordination Flexibility Assessment CES-21 flexibility metrics project (PG&E, SDG&E and others) Northwest Power and Conservation Council 2014/2015 flexibility study NERC Essential Reliability Services Task Force Ramping SPP Wind Integration Study Ramping Task Many others. 43 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • Joan Miro - Emge Art

    Joan Miro - Emge Art

    Joan Miro' April 20, 1893 - December 25, 1983 "I try to apply colors like words that shape poems, like notes that shape music." -Joan Miro
  • Multicellular and Tissue Levels of Organization

    Multicellular and Tissue Levels of Organization

    3 cell types: Pinacocytes, mesenchyme cells, and choanocytes Central cavity or series of branching chambers- circulates water during filter feeding. No tissues or organs.
  • Microbiology for Pediatric Residents

    Microbiology for Pediatric Residents

    Bugs and Drugs: an approach to the management of infections J. Pernica Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases Useful tidbits (II) clindamycin also is NOT excreted in urine aminoglycosides almost never used alone aminoglycosides have poor lung penetration and generally should...
  • Acknowledgements - University College London

    Acknowledgements - University College London

    What's next? The outcome of the trial is an estimate of the whole duration-response curve. What to do with this curve estimate? Simply calculate duration corresponding to specific cure rate (e.g. 5% less than with current control).
  • HLED1101 Innføring i helseledelse og organisering Forelesning ...

    HLED1101 Innføring i helseledelse og organisering Forelesning ...

    HLED1101 Innføring i helseledelse og organisering Forelesning 4: Den sentrale helseforvaltningen - og litt til ..... Terje P. Hagen Senter for helseadministrasjon
  • Network Science (overview, part 2) Prof. Ralucca Gera,

    Network Science (overview, part 2) Prof. Ralucca Gera,

    The WS model turned out to be a wonderful model generating interests among the researchers, and still used today in complex networks analysis, as an ordered world sprinkled with randomness. Downsides: both ER and WS depict an egalitarian world, where...
  • TODAYS PLAN!  AGENDA:  Talk briefly about the test

    TODAYS PLAN! AGENDA: Talk briefly about the test

    There were probably about 3000ish men alongside the Spartans. Spartans were chosen to be the leaders of the battle, for obv reasons. They actually had people stationed at the goat path and they quickly gave up to the Persians once...
  • Single Infusion Mash 210 Temperature [ F ]

    Single Infusion Mash 210 Temperature [ F ]

    POF+ yeasts also produce more fusel alcohols than lager & ale yeasts at higher temps. Bottle conditioning will increase phenols while reducing any diacetyl. Weizen Brewers must achieve a balance. Harold J. Gulbransen. Wort Aeration with Oxygen & a SS...