Future Failure Probability of Dams in New England Under Land ...

Future Failure Probability of Dams in New England Under Land ...

INVESTIGATION OF SNOWMELT IMPACT ON TRENDS IN RUNOFF COEFFICIENTS OF FLOODS IN NEW ENGLAND 2019 GSA Northeastern Section March 18, 2019 Presented by: Iman Hosseini-Shakib; PhD Candidate at UNH 1 Future of Dams Project Four-year NSF EPSCoR grant Collaborators in NH, ME and RI Focus on stakeholder engagement (to help the NE communities make complex decisions about dams) Dam risk as a major factor for decisions about dams Floods & overtopping are the main reasons of dam breaks 2 Background Historical floods in New England Before establishment of gauging stations 600+ outstanding floods since 17th century Floods with consequences recorded in peoples minds, reports, local papers etc. (Thomson et al, 1964) 3 Background 21% 14% 12% 12% 7% 6% 8%

8% 6% 4% Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2% 2% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (Thomson et al, 1964) Dec Monthly Distribution of Historical Floods in New England until 1955 4 Background 60% Monthly Relative Frequency of Annual Peaks in NE Stream Gauges 50%

On average, March and April floods account for 53% of annual floods at these gauges. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan Aberjona (01102500) BranchBrook (01069700) WestRiver (01155500) Winnicut (01073785) Shetucket (01122500) Naugatuck (01208500) SugarRiver (01152500) Presumpscot (01064118) QuaboagRiver (01176000) BlackRiver (01153000) WoodRiver (01117800) NipmucRiver (01111300) Average Feb Mar Apr May

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 Background Collins (2009): Evidence for Changing Flood Risk in New England Since the Late 20th Century Trends in 28 long-term annual flood series for New England watersheds with dominantly natural streamflow 25 upward trends, 40% of which statistically significant (p < 0.10) Step change in increasing flood magnitude in 1970s, synchronous with North Atlantic Oscillation phase change 6 Research Question Have runoff production and transfer mechanisms changed in large events in New England? or Is there a trend in runoff coefficients of large events in New England? 7 Methods No. Follow-up on the work of Collins (2009) using same 28 stream flow

gauge stations, ArcGIS for basin delineation and R for data analysis Collins, 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 USGS Gage Station Number 01010000 01010500 01011000 01013500 01014000 01022500 01030500

01031500 01038000 01047000 01052500 01055000 01057000 01064500 01073000 01076500 01078000 01121000 01134500 01137500 01142500 01144000 01169000 01181000 01188000 01193500 01196500 01204000 USGS Gauge Station Name State St. John River at Ninemile Bridge St. John River at Dickey Allagash River near Allagash Fish River near Fort Kent St. John River below Fish River at Fort Kent Narraguagus River at Cherryfield Mattawamkeag River near Mattawamkeag Piscataquis River near Dover-Foxcroft Sheepscot River at North Whitefield Carrabassett River near North Anson Diamond River near Wentworth Location Swift River near Roxbury Little Androscoggin River near South Paris Saco River near Conway Oyster River near Durham Pemigewasset River at Plymouth Smith River near Bristol Mount Hope River near Warrenville Moose River at Victory

Ammonoosuc River at Bethlehem Junction Ayers Brook at Randolph White River at West Hartford North River at Shattuckville West Branch Westfield River at Huntington Burlington Brook near Burlington Salmon River near East Hampton Quinnipiac River at Wallingford8 Pomperaug River at Southbury ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME NH ME ME NH NH NH NH CT VT NH VT VT MA MA CT CT CT CT Methods Delineation of basins upstream of gauges in ArcGIS using USGS 10m DEMs, Using USGS daily stream flow data, Using PRISM daily precipitation data

with 4km resolution from 19812006 9 Methods Cropping gridded NetCDF precipitation files for each basin U basin for daily precipitation and = Taking average of grid cells of a making P and R timeseries. US NetCDF Basin Shapefile Cropped NetCDF 10 Methods Flood frequency analysis, finding 5-year floods Separating floods larger than 5-year magnitude Forming timeseries of large events 15 days and finding C, Trend analysis using MannKendall method. 11 Results At each station: Flood frequency analysis tables and graphs Calculated 5-yr floods based on the obtained equation of flow vs. return period 12 Results

At each station: Days of large events Tables and graphs of monthly 5-yr Flood frequency of events 13 Results 225 large events 65% of floods in March, April & May Average runoff coefficient of a 50% 43.6% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% large event in New England is 1.44 10% 12.4% 9.3% 7.1% 6.7% 7.1% 5.3% 3.1% 5% 2.7%

1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Relative frequency of floods in New England 14 Results Month Apr May Mar Jun Oct Aug Dec Sep Jan Feb Jul Nov Relative Frequency 43.6% 12.4% 9.3% 7.1% 7.1% 6.7% 5.3% 3.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5 Average C 1.95 1.53

1.78 0.60 0.62 0.53 0.89 0.53 0.92 1.21 0.80 0.59 1.95 2 1.78 1.53 1.5 1.21 1 0.92 0.60 0.5 0 Jan 0.89 0.80 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

0.53 0.53 0.62 0.59 Aug Oct Sep Nov Average Runoff Coefficients of floods in New England Dec 15 Results 16 USGS Gage No. Station Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 01010000 01010500 01011000 01013500 01014000 01022500 01030500 01031500 01038000 01047000 01052500 01055000 01057000 01064500 01073000 01076500 01078000 01121000 01134500 01137500 01142500 01144000 01169000 01181000 01188000 01193500 01196500 01204000 USGS Gauge Station Name St. John River at Ninemile Bridge St. John River at Dickey Allagash River near Allagash Fish River near Fort Kent St. John River below Fish River at Fort Kent Narraguagus River at Cherryfield Mattawamkeag River near Mattawamkeag

Piscataquis River near Dover-Foxcroft Sheepscot River at North Whitefield Carrabassett River near North Anson Diamond River near Wentworth Location Swift River near Roxbury Little Androscoggin River near South Paris Saco River near Conway Oyster River near Durham Pemigewasset River at Plymouth Smith River near Bristol Mount Hope River near Warrenville Moose River at Victory Ammonoosuc River at Bethlehem Junction Ayers Brook at Randolph White River at West Hartford North River at Shattuckville West Branch Westfield River at Huntington Burlington Brook near Burlington Salmon River near East Hampton Quinnipiac River at Wallingford Pomperaug River at Southbury State Latitude Longitude ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME NH ME ME NH NH NH NH CT VT NH VT VT

MA MA CT CT CT CT 46.7006 47.0131 47.0697 47.2375 47.2833 44.6081 45.5011 45.1750 44.2228 44.8692 44.8775 44.6428 44.3039 43.9908 43.1486 43.7592 43.5664 41.8436 44.5117 44.2686 43.9344 43.7142 42.6383 42.2372 41.7861 41.5522 41.4503 41.4819 -69.7156 -69.0881 -69.0794 -68.5828 -68.0853 -67.9353 -68.3058 -69.3147 -69.5939

-69.9550 -71.0075 -70.5889 -70.5397 -71.0906 -70.9656 -71.6861 -71.7483 -72.1694 -71.8378 -71.6308 -72.6583 -72.4186 -72.7256 -72.8961 -72.9653 -72.4497 -72.8413 -73.2246 Results Drainage Area (sq. km.) 3473 6941 3828 2261 15317 588 3673 772 376 914 394 251 190 997 31.5 1611 222 74 195 227

79 1787 231 244 10.6 259 298 195 Mann-Kendall Mann-Kendall S-value p-value 22 13 6 12 15 -9 12 12 7 -8 3 -9 -5 -1 4 -16 -10 11 2 3 -3 -9 -6 3 9 10 6 6 0.01 0.07 0.60 0.17

0.21 0.23 0.17 0.25 0.37 0.47 0.76 0.47 0.45 1.00 0.71 0.06 0.27 0.13 0.81 0.76 0.86 0.47 0.54 0.76 0.47 0.27 0.54 0.60 Trend Significance at 90% CL + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

+ + + Yes Yes No No No No No No No No No No No No No Yes No No No No No No No No No No No No 17 Next Step Investigation of trends in basins with higher anthropogenic manipulation 18 Thank You! 19

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