Apresentação do PowerPoint - ABPM

Apresentação do PowerPoint - ABPM

2007 Apple & Pear Harvest Forecast Outside EU-27 Pierre Nicolas Prs President WAPA www.wapa-association.org 1. 2007 Apple and Pear harvest forecast outside EU-27 China North America Canada Mexico USA South Hemisphere Argentina Australia Brazil Chile New Zealand

South Africa Russia Southern republics (CIS) Ukraine Uzbekistan Moldova Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 1. Renewing of orchards (cultivar choice, etc.) 2. Apple export/import perspectives 3. World market of concentrated apple juice APPLES WORLD APPLE VARIETIES %

Gala's 13% Others 31% Fuji's 7% Braeburn 3% Red's 19% Granny Smith 6% Jonagold/ Red 3% Golden Delicious 19% Source: Belrose. 20 First Apples Producing Countries (FAO 2005) 1. China

China 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. USA Turkey Iran Italy France Poland Russia Germany India

11. Chile 12. Argentina 13. Japan 14. Brazil 15. Spain 16. South Africa 17. Hungary 18. Ukraine 19. Korea 20. Egypt CHINA CHINA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000

5.000.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, ZMP, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f CHINA APPLES AREA (ha) 1.950.000 1.900.000 1.850.000

1.800.000 1.750.000 1.700.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, ZMP, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f CHINA APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Gala's 3% Others 24%

Golden Delicious 3% Red's 10% Fuji's 60% Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO CHINA APPLES EXPORTS 1.000.000 950.000 900.000 850.000 800.000 750.000 700.000 650.000 600.000

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f CHINA APPLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS Others 26% Russia & CIS 19% Netherlands 5%

Southeast Asia 50% Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO CHINA APPLES IMPORTS 39.000 37.000 35.000 33.000 31.000 29.000 27.000 25.000 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, USDA 2007/08 f USA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 5.000.000 4.500.000 4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000

0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: US Apple, Belrose, USDA. 2007/08 f USA APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Gala's 10% Fuji's 9% Others 32%

Red's 27% Granny Smith 9% Golden Delicious 13% Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO USA APPLES EXPORTS 700.000 650.000 600.000 550.000 500.000 450.000 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f USA APPLES IMPORTS 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: Belrose, USDA 2006/07 p OTHERS NORTH AMERICA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0

2003/04 Mexico 2004/05 M Proc. 2005/06 Canada Source: Agriculture Canada, SAGARPA, FAO C Proc. 2006/07 p OTHERS APPLES NORTH AMERICA VARIETIES ( %) Mexico

Gala's 5% Canada Red's 30% Gala's 7% Golden Delicious 65% Others 29% Golden Delicious 4% Red's 11% Source: Agriculture Canada, USDA

Mac Intosh 35% Empire Spartan 8% 6% OTHERS NORTH AMERICA APPLES EXPORTS 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 2003/04

2004/05 Source: Agriculture Canada, USDA 2005/06 OTHERS NORTH AMERICA APPLES IMPORTS 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 2003/04

2004/05 Mexico 2005/06 Canada Source: Agriculture Canada, USDA 2006/07 p RUSSIA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: FAO, USDA. 2006/07 p 2007/08 f RUSSIA APPLES AREA (ha) 500.000 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000

150.000 100.000 2003/04 2004/05 Source: FAO, USDA. 2005/06 RUSSIA APPLES EXPORTS 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500

1.000 500 0 2003/04 2004/05 Source: FAO, USDA. 2005/06 RUSSIA APPLES IMPORTS 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000

100.000 2003/04 2004/05 Source: FAO, USDA. 2005/06 SOUTHERN REPUBLICS (CIS) Ukraine

Uzbekistan Moldova Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 1.000.000 SOUTHERN REPUBLICS (CIS) APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 2003/04

Ukraine Moldova, Republic of Belarus Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan 2004/05 2005/06 Uzbekistan Azerbaijan, Republic of Kazakhstan Tajikistan Source: FAO, USDA. 200.000 SOUTHERN REPUBLICS (CIS) APPLES AREA (ha)

150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 Ukraine Moldova, Republic of Belarus Kyrgyzstan 2005/06 Uzbekistan Azerbaijan, Republic of Kazakhstan Turkmenistan

Source: FAO, USDA. SOUTHERN REPUBLICS (CIS) 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 APPLES EXPORTS Ukraine

Moldova, Republic of Belarus Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan, Republic of Kazakhstan Tajikistan Source: FAO, USDA. 100.000 SOUTHERN REPUBLICS (CIS) 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 APPLES IMPORTS Ukraine Azerbaijan, Republic of Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Belarus Tajikistan Source: FAO, USDA. Moldova, Republic of Kazakhstan Turkmenistan

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 4.900.000 4.800.000 4.700.000 4.600.000 4.500.000 4.400.000 4.300.000 4.200.000 4.100.000 4.000.000 3.900.000 3.800.000 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: FAO, DECOFRUT 2006/07 p SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE APPLES VARIETIES (%) Granny Smith 15% Others 6% Gala's 30% Golden Delicious 4% Fuji's 11%

Red's 23% Cripps Pink 5% Source: WAPA Braeburn 6% CHILE APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 1.600.000 1.400.000 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: FAO, DECOFRUT 2006/07 p CHILE APPLES AREA (ha) 40.000 39.000 38.000 37.000 36.000 35.000 34.000 33.000

32.000 31.000 30.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, DECOFRUT 2006/07 p CHILE APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Granny Smith 17% Others 1% Gala's 35%

Red's 29% Fuji's 9% Cripps Pink 5% Braeburn 4% Source: Decofrut, WAPA CHILE APPLES EXPORTS 800.000 750.000 700.000 650.000 600.000 550.000 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, Exportdata, DECOFRUT 2006/07 p CHILE APPLES EXPORTS Middle East 11% Others 1% Asia 9% Europe 35% USA 12% Latin America 32% Source: WAPA, DECOFRUT

1 USD versus Peso Cl CHILE APPLES IMPORTS 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 2006/07 p Source: WAPA, DECOFRUT 2007/08 f ARGENTINA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA. 2006/07 p ARGENTINA APPLES AREA (ha) 60.000 55.000 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000

15.000 10.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: USDA, FAO 2006/07 p ARGENTINA APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Granny Smith 26% Others 3% Gala's 10%

Red's 61% Source: ARGENTINA APPLES EXPORTS 300.000 280.000 260.000 240.000 220.000 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, FAO 2006/07 p ARGENTINA APPLES EXPORTS ( %) Others 11% Russia 22% Europe 42% Brazil 25% Source: ARGENTINA APPLES IMPORTS

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: FAO, USDA 2006/07 p

BRAZIL BRAZIL APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 1.000.000 900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 Source: ABPM, AGAPOMI, EPAGRI, DEROL 2006/07 p BRAZIL APPLES AREA (ha) 40.000 38.000 36.000 34.000 32.000 30.000 28.000 26.000 24.000 22.000 20.000

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: ABPM, AGAPOMI, EPAGRI, DEROL 2006/07 p BRAZIL APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Others 5% Fuji's 35% Gala's 60% Source: ABPM, AGAPOMI BRAZIL

APPLES EXPORTS 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: ABPM, SECEX

2006/07 p 1 USD versus Real BRAZIL APPLES EXPORTS Others 26% Netherlands 30% Bangladesh 2% Sweeden 5% Portugal 6% Germany 7% UK 14% France 9% BRAZIL

APPLES IMPORTS 100.000 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: SECEX 2006/07 p

BRAZIL APPLES IMPORTS ( %) Uruguay 2% Italy 2% Spain 1% Others 1% France 2% Chile 16% Argentina 75% Source: ABPM, AGAPOMI SOUTH AFRICA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 900.000 800.000 700.000

600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, DFPT, USDA. 2006/07 p SOUTH AFRICA APPLES AREA (ha)

30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, DFPT, USDA. 2006/07 p Apple Orchard Age Distribution 35% 30%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0-3 4-10 11-15 years Source: DFPT. 16-25 25+ SOUTH AFRICA APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Others 20%

Gala's 12% Fuji's 4% Braeburn 3% Red's 14% Granny Smith 25% Golden Delicious 22% Source: DFPT, WAPA SOUTH AFRICA APPLES EXPORTS 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000

150.000 100.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, DFPT. 2006/07 p Western Africa 7.54% Asia 10.85% Central Africa

0.73% United States 0.16% Eastern Africa 1.15% Far East 5.79% Indian Ocean Island 3.27% Middle East 4.45% United Kingdom North America (Canada) 0.92% 43.93%

Northern Europe Southern Europe 0.64% 18.94% Southern Africa 0.01% Source: DFPT. Russia 1.62% SOUTH AFRICA APPLES IMPORTS 100 90 80 70

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: USDA, FAO. 2007/08 f NEW ZEALAND

Waikato 220 ha Gisborne 160ha Hawkes Bay 5.800ha Nelson / Tasman region 2.500ha Central Otago 350 ha NEW ZEALAND 600.000 APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000

100.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: WAPA, PIPFRUIT NEW ZEALAND, AGFIRST, USDA, FAO. NEW ZEALAND APPLES AREA (ha) 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000

4.000 2.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p 2007/08 f Source: WAPA, PIPFRUIT NEW ZEALAND, AGFIRST, USDA, FAO. NEW ZEALAND APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Others 14% Gala's 33%

Granny Smith 3% Pacific Rose 6% Jazz 6% Fuji's 10% Braeburn 28% Source: WAPA, PIPFRUIT NEW ZEALAND, AGFIRST, USDA, FAO. NEW ZEALAND APPLES EXPORTS 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, AGFIRST. 2006/07p NEW ZEALAND APPLES IMPORTS 2.000 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800

600 400 200 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: USDA, FAO. 2006/07 p AUSTRALIA APPLES PRODUCTION (t) 350.000 300.000 250.000

200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA. 2006/07 p AUSTRALIA APPLES AREA (ha) 30.000 25.000

20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA. 2006/07 p AUSTRALIA APPLES VARIETIES ( %) Others 8% Granny Smith 21%

Gala's 14% Fuji's 8% Cripps Red 7% Golden Delicious 6% Red's 16% Source: WAPA Cripps Pink 20% AUSTRALIA APPLES EXPORTS 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000

10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: USDA, FAO 2006/07 p AUSTRALIA APPLES IMPORTS 100

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: FAO, USDA

2007/08 f PEARS 20 First Pears Producing Countries (FAO 2005) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. China Italy USA

Spain Argentina Germany Japan Korea South Africa Turkey 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. France Belgium

Chile Netherlands India Iran North Korea Portugal Australia Ukraine CHINA PEARS PRODUCTION (t) 14.000.000 12.000.000 10.000.000 8.000.000 6.000.000 4.000.000 2.000.000 0

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f CHINA PEARS AREA (ha) 1.200.000 1.150.000 1.100.000 1.050.000 1.000.000 950.000

900.000 850.000 800.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f CHINA PEARS EXPORTS 800.000 700.000

600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 p Source: Belrose, USDA, FAO 2007/08 f CHINA PEARS IMPORTS 65.000

60.000 55.000 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: Belrose, USDA 2006/07 p USA PEARS PRODUCTION (t)

900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 2003/04 2004/05 United States of America 2005/06 2006/07 p Total NW & CA

Source: USA Pears, FAO, USDA. 2007/08 f Fresh NW & CA USA PEARS VARIETIES 2007 ( %) Comice 1% Anjou 29% ProcessedWilliam/Bartlett 36% Red Anjou 2% Bosc 9% Bartletts 20% Source: USA Pears, USDA, FAO Others 3%

USA PEARS EXPORTS 300.000 290.000 280.000 270.000 260.000 250.000 240.000 230.000 220.000 210.000 200.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06

Source: USA Pears, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p USA PEARS IMPORTS 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06

Source: USA Pears, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p OTHERS NORTH AMERICA PEARS PRODUCTION (t) 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2003/04 2004/05

Mexico 2005/06 Canada Source: Agriculture Canada, FAO 2006/07 p OTHERS NORTH AMERICA PEARS EXPORTS 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 2003/04

2004/05 Mexico 2005/06 Canada Source: Agriculture Canada, USDA 2006/07 p OTHERS NORTH AMERICA PEARS IMPORTS 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0

2003/04 2004/05 Mexico 2005/06 Canada Source: Agriculture Canada, USDA 2006/07 p SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ARGENTINA PEARS PRODUCTION (t) 800.000 700.000 600.000

500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p ARGENTINA PEARS AREA (ha) 30.000

25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p ARGENTINA PEARS VARIETIES ( %) Bosc 12%

Others 3% Packam's 40% Williams 45% Source: WAPA ARGENTINA PEARS EXPORTS 500.000 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 2003/04

2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p ARGENTINA PEARS EXPORTS ( %) Others 7% USA 11% Europe 37% Russia 19% Brazil 26% Source: USDA ARGENTINA

PEARS IMPORTS 2.000 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO

2006/07 p CHILE PEARS PRODUCTION (t) 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA

2006/07 p CHILE PEARS AREA (ha) 10.000 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 2003/04 2004/05

2005/06 Source: WAPA, Decofrut 2006/07 p CHILE PEARS VARIETIES ( %) Others 9% Bartlet's 10% Abate Fetel 8% Packam's 56% Bosc 17% Source: WAPA, Decofrut CHILE PEARS EXPORTS

120.000 110.000 100.000 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p CHILE

PEARS EXPORTS ( %) Middle East 4% Others 1% USA 18% Europa 45% Latin America 32% Source: WAPA, Decofrut CHILE PEARS IMPORTS 50 45 40 35 30

25 20 15 10 5 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p SOUTH AFRICA PEARS PRODUCTION (t) 350.000

300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, DFPT 2006/07 p SOUTH AFRICA PEARS AREA (ha)

15.000 14.500 14.000 13.500 13.000 12.500 12.000 11.500 11.000 10.500 10.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, DFPT 2006/07 p

Pear Orchard Age Distribution 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0-3 4-10 11-15 years Source: DFPT 16-25 25+

SOUTH AFRICA PEARS VARIETIES ( %) Others 20% Packam's 29% Early Bon Chrtien 9% Bon Chrtien 20% Forelle 22% Source: DFPT SOUTH AFRICA PEARS EXPORTS (t) 190.000

170.000 150.000 130.000 110.000 90.000 70.000 50.000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: DFPT, WAPA 2006/07 p Western Africa 1.24%

Asia 4.49% Eastern Africa 0.07% Central Africa 0.07% Far East 4.74% United States 0.68% Indian Ocean Island 1.70% United Kingdom 23.77% Middle East

1.94% Southern Europe 3.86% North America (Canada) 1.96% Southern Africa 0.08% Russia 5.16% Northern Europe 50.26% Source: DFPT, WAPA SOUTH AFRICA PEARS IMPORTS

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: DFPT, FAO 2006/07 p

AUSTRALIA PEARS PRODUCTION (t) 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO

2006/07 p AUSTRALIA PEARS AREA (ha) 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO

2006/07 p AUSTRALIA PEARS VARIETIES ( %) Others 7% Bosc 6% Williams 60% Packam's 27% Source: WAPA AUSTRALIA PEARS EXPORTS 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000

12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: WAPA, USDA, FAO 2006/07 p AUSTRALIA PEARS IMPORTS

5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: USDA 2006/07 p

BRAZIL PEARS IMPORTS 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: SECEX

2006/07 p 2007/08 f CAJ CONSUMPTION, EXPORT AND IMPORT OF CAJ - 2006 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 Argentina Australia

Chile New Zealand South Africa Brazil China USA SPECIAL THANKS Anton Rabe, Stefan Conradie & Jacques Du Preez - DFPT - South Africa Desmond O' Rourke - Belrose - USA Dr. Wilhelm Ellinger - ZMP - Germany Frdric Rosseneu - WAPA - Belgium Ian Palmer & Gary Jones - Pipfruit NZ - NZ Karen Jones - Decofrut - Chile Kevin Moffitt - USA Pears - USA Marcelo Loyarte - CAFI - Argentina Mark Bowen - US Apple Association - USA

Mark Powers - Northwest Horticulture Council - USA Paulo Momo - ABPM - Brazil Anuario Estadstico de la Produccin Agrcola de Mexico Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Australian Bureau of Statistics FAO National Bureau of Statistics of China Statistics Department of Agriculture Japan Statistics South Africa USDA PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 LITHUANIA THANK YOU....

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